Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 will reach 5350–5400 by mid-April 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“take the S&P up to right around 5350 to 4,400 5400 in my view uh into the middle part of April”
The S&P 500 will reach 5350–5400 by mid-April 2024
- Made on
- 2024-03-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-04-15
S&P 500 index trades into the 5350–5400 range on or before 2024-04-15.
Window high (close) 5254.35 is ~1.8% below the bottom of the 5350 target; the late-March all-time intraday high (~5265) also fell short, so an intraday-vs-close distinction does not change the outcome. Criterion definitively failed by the 2024-04-15 deadline. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Is a Minor Consolidation in Place?🤏🏻🤔
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FRED SP500 daily closes: 2024-03-28 = 5254.35 (the highest close in the 2024-03-28→2024-04-15 window). The index then declined through early-mid April: 5147.21 (04-04), 5123.41 (04-12), and 5061.82 on the 2024-04-15 deadline. It never traded into the 5350–5400 range in the window.
The S&P 500 did not close above 5300 until 2024-05-14 (first close above 5300) and set its next record ~5308 on 2024-05-15 — well after the 2024-04-15 deadline, corroborating that 5350–5400 was not reached by mid-April.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 will reach 5350–5400 by mid-April 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources