Full record
HiteconomyUS interest rates have peaked and will pull back through spring 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“rates likely have Peak for the spring”
US interest rates have peaked and will pull back through spring 2024
- Made on
- 2024-03-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-22
US benchmark interest rates / Treasury yields (10Y as proxy) trade below their 2024-03-20 level at some point on or before 2024-06-20.
Criterion (10Y below the 2024-03-20 level of 4.27% at some point on/before 2024-06-20) is satisfied on daily-close data; first satisfied 2024-03-22. Set resolved_on to the first date the criterion was met. Deadline 2024-06-20 also closed below (4.25%). No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Will $NVDA Push to New Highs?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FRED DGS10 (daily 10Y Treasury constant-maturity yield): 2024-03-20 = 4.27%. It traded below that level starting 2024-03-22 (4.22%) and 2024-03-27/28 (4.20%), and again in the June window: 4.24% (06-13), 4.20% (06-14), 4.22% (06-18), 4.25% (06-20). The 10Y was below its 2024-03-20 level on many days on or before the 2024-06-20 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US interest rates have peaked and will pull back through sp…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources