Full record
HittechAI chips (primarily Nvidia data-center GPUs) will remain sold out / supply-constrained through mid-to-late 2025
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hittech“chips are basically sold out through mid to late 25”
AI chips (primarily Nvidia data-center GPUs) will remain sold out / supply-constrained through mid-to-late 2025
- Made on
- 2024-03-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
Leading-edge AI GPU supply remains below demand (Nvidia data-center GPUs effectively sold out with multi-quarter lead times) through late 2025
Criterion: leading-edge AI GPU supply below demand with multi-quarter lead times through late 2025. Evidence consistently shows constrained supply persisting through 2025-12-31 (the deadline) and beyond. Sources are trade/industry outlets citing Nvidia and TSMC executives; a later stage could strengthen with primary Nvidia FY2025 Q3/Q4 earnings-call transcripts and TSMC investor-call transcripts, but the direction is unambiguous and uncontested. Outcome value/scoring deferred.
Sources
Are $NVDA and AI Stocks Overvalued?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
As of late 2025 into 2026, Nvidia data-center GPU (H100/H200/Blackwell) supply remained below demand. Nvidia reported ~$57B quarterly revenue (>$51B from data center) while still describing itself as supply-constrained at record levels; hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon) placed multi-billion-dollar forward orders consuming most Blackwell allocation through end-2026 into 2027.
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei stated CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity 'is very tight and remains sold out through 2025 and into 2026'; H100/H200 lead times reported at 36-52 weeks driven by CoWoS and HBM constraints — indicating effective sold-out status with multi-quarter lead times through the entire prediction window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
AI chips (primarily Nvidia data-center GPUs) will remain so…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources