Full record
HittechThe Dencun upgrade in mid-March 2024 will cut the cost to transact on Ethereum L2s by roughly 80–95%
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hittech“the dankun upgrade coming up in mid-march which should make uh the cost to transact on a the aal2 is about uh you know anywhere from uh 80 to 95% cheaper”
The Dencun upgrade in mid-March 2024 will cut the cost to transact on Ethereum L2s by roughly 80–95%
- Made on
- 2024-02-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-14
Following the mid-March 2024 Dencun upgrade, median transaction fees on major Ethereum L2s fall by 80–95% versus their pre-upgrade level
Criterion is a median L2 fee decline of 80-95% versus pre-upgrade level. Observed declines cluster at the high end of / above that band (~90% typical, some chains ~99%). The claimed range and the observed reduction overlap and point the same direction (a large majority reduction), though several chains exceeded the 95% upper bound. Exact per-chain median percentages depend on the pre-upgrade baseline window chosen; Base was cited going from ~$0.31 to near-negligible. No conflicting evidence. Outcome value/scoring deferred to a later stage; the magnitude-vs-band nuance is flagged for the quantify step.
Sources
Bullish on ETH: Two Major Catalysts2️⃣💥
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Dencun upgrade activated on 2024-03-13 (EIP-4844 proto-danksharding). Within 24 hours, median transaction fees on major Ethereum L2s dropped dramatically: post-upgrade medians fell to roughly $0.05 on Optimism, $0.064 on Base, $0.5 on Arbitrum, $0.16 on zkSync Era. Reporting described declines of 'as much as 99%' on some chains, with Optimism-stack chains (Optimism, Base) seeing the largest reductions.
Independent coverage confirmed L2 transaction fees dropped by more than 90% across the ecosystem immediately after Dencun.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Dencun upgrade in mid-March 2024 will cut the cost to t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-02-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources