Full record
HitmarketsUS equities are strong in 2024, with strong gains in January and February 2024.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“We expect 2024 to be strong and a strong Dec 23 bodes well for strong Jan + Feb”
US equities are strong in 2024, with strong gains in January and February 2024.
- Made on
- 2024-01-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
TRUE if all three legs hold: the S&P 500 posts a positive price return in January 2024, a positive price return in February 2024, and a positive full-year 2024 price return (2024-12-31 close above the 2023 year-end close). FALSE if any of the three legs is negative.
All three legs of the conjunctive criterion were measured on official index closes and each is positive: January +1.59%, February +5.17%, full-year +23.31%. Month boundaries follow the criterion's price-return framing, using the last trading day of the prior month as the base (2023-12-29 for January, since 2023-12-31 was not a trading day) and the last trading day of the month as the endpoint (2024-01-31, 2024-02-29). Both independent price sources agree to the cent, so there is no conflicting credible evidence. No outcome value assigned and no scoring performed, per stage scope.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Leg 1, January 2024 price return: S&P 500 closed 2023-12-29 at 4,769.83 and 2024-01-31 at 4,845.65, a return of +1.59% — positive. FRED series SP500 (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices).
Leg 2, February 2024 price return: S&P 500 closed 2024-01-31 at 4,845.65 and 2024-02-29 at 5,096.27, a return of +5.17% — positive.
Leg 3, full-year 2024 price return: S&P 500 closed 2024-12-31 at 5,881.63 against the 2023 year-end close of 4,769.83 on 2023-12-29, a return of +23.31% — positive, and the year-end close is above the 2023 year-end close as the criterion requires.
Independent cross-check: Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily chart data returns identical closes on all four dates used by the three legs — 2023-12-29 = 4,769.83, 2024-01-31 = 4,845.65, 2024-02-29 = 5,096.27, 2024-12-31 = 5,881.63.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US equities are strong in 2024, with strong gains in Januar…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources