Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 will reach 5,200 by the end of 2024.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“if you use the median number uh it's S&P 5200”
The S&P 500 will reach 5,200 by the end of 2024.
- Made on
- 2024-01-31
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-20
The S&P 500 trades at or above 5,200 at some point by year-end 2024.
Criterion: 'S&P 500 trades at or above 5,200 at some point by year-end 2024.' First close ≥5,200 on 2024-03-20 (intraday touch on/around that date as well); condition met. resolved_on = first close at/above 5,200.
Sources
Tom Lee's Macro Minute: When Prior Year Return is Greater Than 15% & January Returns Positive
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500 first closed above the 5,200 level at 5,224.62 on March 20, 2024 (per the index's incremental closing-milestone record), satisfying 'at or above 5,200' well before year-end.
The S&P 500 continued far above 5,200 through 2024, crossing 5,300 (May 15, 2024) and eventually peaking near 6,090 in December 2024 — confirming the 5,200 threshold was reached and exceeded within 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 will reach 5,200 by the end of 2024.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources