Full record
HitmarketsUS stocks post a double-digit percentage gain in 2024 (Lee puts the odds at better than 50%).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Double-digits is more than 50% probability”
US stocks post a double-digit percentage gain in 2024 (Lee puts the odds at better than 50%).
- Made on
- 2024-01-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.79
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
TRUE if the S&P 500's calendar-2024 price return is at least 10% (2024-12-31 close at or above 110% of the 2023 year-end close); FALSE otherwise. Note for quantification: the stated probability is a floor ('more than 50%'), not a point estimate, so explicit_numeric is left null and p should sit above 0.50.
Criterion is measured on the S&P 500 calendar-2024 PRICE return, which is unambiguous and settled: 4,769.83 (2023-12-29) to 5,881.63 (2024-12-31) = +23.31%, versus the +10.00% bar. The margin is large enough that no plausible alternative convention changes the reading: total return (+25.02%) is higher still, and even the equal-weight and small-cap variants of 'US stocks' cleared 10% in 2024 (S&P 500 Equal Weight ~+11.1% price, Russell 2000 +11.54% total return), so the broader 'US stocks' framing resolves the same way. Deadline 2024-12-31 has passed and the measurement window is closed. No conflicting credible evidence found. Per instruction, no outcome value assigned here. Note carried forward for quantification (already stated in the record's criterion): Lee framed the probability as a floor ('better than 50%'), not a point estimate, so explicit_numeric stays null and p should sit above 0.50.
Sources
The stock market could soar as much as 30% next year as expectations reset
Yahoo Finance / Business Insider ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 official daily index levels (S&P Dow Jones Indices, redistributed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). The 2023 year-end close (Friday 2023-12-29, the last trading day of 2023) was 4,769.83 and the 2024 year-end close (Tuesday 2024-12-31) was 5,881.63, a calendar-2024 price return of +23.31%. The criterion's threshold level is 110% of 4,769.83 = 5,246.81; the actual 2024-12-31 close of 5,881.63 sits 634.82 points (12.1%) above that threshold.
Independent corroboration from the index provider's own licensed benchmark data: BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) fund page reports calendar-year returns in which the 2024 'Benchmark (%)' figure for the S&P 500 Index is 25.02% (total return), with the fund's own 2024 NAV total return at 24.98%. Total return exceeds the +23.31% price return by the ~1.7pp dividend contribution, and both clear the 10% bar by a wide margin.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.79- How sure they sounded
- 55%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US stocks post a double-digit percentage gain in 2024 (Lee…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources