Full record
MissmarketsUS stock market breadth improves during 2024, with small- and mid-cap stocks outperforming.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“5 reasons we see market breadth improving in 2024 = favors small-caps and stock picking. SMID Granny Shots as well.”
US stock market breadth improves during 2024, with small- and mid-cap stocks outperforming.
- Made on
- 2024-01-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
TRUE if the Russell 2000 posts a higher calendar-2024 total return than the S&P 500 (the small-cap outperformance leg), with the equal-weight S&P 500 versus cap-weight S&P 500 2024 return spread as a corroborating breadth check; FALSE if the S&P 500 out-returns the Russell 2000 over calendar 2024.
All three legs point the same way and the FALSE branch of the written criterion is the one that was triggered: the criterion says FALSE if the S&P 500 out-returns the Russell 2000 over calendar 2024, and it did, by 13.48pp on total return (25.02% versus 11.54%) and 13.29pp on price return. The corroborating equal-weight versus cap-weight breadth check confirms the same picture from the other direction, with equal-weight trailing cap-weight by 12.26pp, i.e. 2024 breadth narrowed rather than improved (the year was dominated by mega-cap leadership). The mid-cap leg fails too (S&P MidCap 400 +13.93%). One measurement caveat logged for transparency: the Russell 2000 daily bars retrieved from the Interactive Brokers RUSSELL feed show an internally inconsistent low field on 2023-12-29 (low 2027.65 printed above the close 2027.08), but the CLOSE values used here, 2,027.08 for 2023 year-end and 2,230.16 for 2024 year-end, are the standard published year-end levels and are independently corroborated by the IWM benchmark total return of 11.54% (a ~+10.0% price return plus roughly 1.4% dividend yield). Deadline 2024-12-31 has passed; window closed. No conflicting credible evidence found. Per instruction, no outcome value assigned.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Primary leg of the criterion, Russell 2000 calendar-2024 total return: BlackRock's iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fund page reports the 2024 'Benchmark (%)' figure for the Russell 2000 Index at 11.54% (fund NAV total return 11.35%, market price 11.39%). This is the index provider's licensed benchmark return as disclosed in regulated fund performance reporting.
Comparator leg, S&P 500 calendar-2024 total return: BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) fund page reports the 2024 'Benchmark (%)' figure for the S&P 500 Index at 25.02%. Directly against the criterion: the S&P 500 out-returned the Russell 2000 by 13.48 percentage points on a total-return basis in calendar 2024 (25.02% versus 11.54%), the opposite of the small-cap outperformance the record requires. The same ordering holds on price returns computed from index closes: S&P 500 4,769.83 to 5,881.63 = +23.31%, versus Russell 2000 2,027.08 to 2,230.16 = +10.02%, a 13.29 point gap.
Corroborating breadth check named in the criterion (equal-weight versus cap-weight S&P 500 spread). Equal-weight lagged cap-weight sharply in 2024, indicating breadth NARROWED rather than improved: the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP, NYSE Arca) closed 2023-12-29 at 157.80 and 2024-12-31 at 175.23, a price return of +11.05%, versus the cap-weighted S&P 500's +23.31% price return over the identical dates, a spread of -12.26 percentage points. RSP daily closes were taken from consolidated NYSE Arca market data via the Interactive Brokers market-data API (price return only, dividends excluded on both sides of the comparison); the Invesco product page is cited as the canonical instrument reference. The direction and magnitude are not sensitive to the dividend treatment.
Mid-cap leg of the claim, also settled against the record: BlackRock's iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (IJH) fund page reports the 2024 'Benchmark (%)' figure for the S&P MidCap 400 Index at 13.93%, trailing the S&P 500's 25.02% by 11.09 percentage points. So neither the small-cap nor the mid-cap half of 'small- and mid-cap stocks outperforming' occurred in calendar 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US stock market breadth improves during 2024, with small- a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources