Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 makes most of its 2024 gains in the second half of 2024 (the H2 gain exceeds the H1 gain).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“This is consistent with our 2024 Year Ahead Outlook, where our base case is the S&P 500 makes most of its gains in [the] second half of 2024”
The S&P 500 makes most of its 2024 gains in the second half of 2024 (the H2 gain exceeds the H1 gain).
- Made on
- 2023-12-30
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.89
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
'Most of its gains in the second half' operationalized as a split of the calendar-2024 price return: H1 = 2023-12-29 close to 2024-06-28 close; H2 = 2024-06-28 close to 2024-12-31 close. TRUE if the H2 percentage gain exceeds the H1 percentage gain (i.e. more than half the year's advance accrues after mid-year). FALSE if the H1 gain is the larger of the two, or if the index declines over H2 while gaining over the year.
Measured strictly on the criterion's own windows, H1 2024 (+14.48%) exceeded H2 2024 (+7.71%), so more than half the year's advance accrued before mid-year rather than after. The finding is robust to the percentage-versus-points choice (+690.65 pts H1 vs +421.15 pts H2), which removes the main operationalization risk in reading 'most of its gains in the second half.' Both independent price sources agree to the cent on all boundary closes; no conflicting credible evidence found. No outcome value assigned and no scoring performed, per stage scope.
Sources
Tom Lee Predicts S&P 500 Surge In 2024 Despite Early-Year Downturns
Benzinga ·
Evidence of what happened
The four boundary closes named by the criterion, from FRED series SP500 (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices): 2023-12-29 = 4,769.83 (last trading day of 2023); 2024-06-28 = 5,460.48 (last trading day of H1 2024); 2024-12-31 = 5,881.63 (last trading day of 2024). Computed exactly as the criterion specifies: H1 price return = 4,769.83 -> 5,460.48 = +14.48%; H2 price return = 5,460.48 -> 5,881.63 = +7.71%. The H1 gain is the larger of the two.
Independent cross-check: Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily chart data returns identical closes on all three criterion boundary dates — 2023-12-29 = 4,769.83, 2024-06-28 = 5,460.48, 2024-12-31 = 5,881.63.
Robustness check on the operationalization: measured in index points rather than percentages, H1 advanced +690.65 points and H2 advanced +421.15 points, so the same half is the larger contributor under either measure. Full-year 2024 price return was +23.31%, and the index gained (did not decline) over H2, so the criterion's alternate FALSE clause about an H2 decline does not apply.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.89- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 makes most of its 2024 gains in the second half…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-12-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources