Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 reaches 5,200 by the end of 2024.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“YE 2024 TARGET: Our 2024 YE Target is 5,200 which is 20X 2025 EPS of $260.”
The S&P 500 reaches 5,200 by the end of 2024.
- Made on
- 2023-12-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
A bullish year-end level target. TRUE if the S&P 500's final close of 2024 is at or above 5,200 (exceeding the target also resolves TRUE, since the call is directional upside to that level). FALSE if the 2024 year-end close is below 5,200.
Criterion is evaluated on the last close of calendar 2024, which was 5,881.63 on 2024-12-31 — comfortably at or above the 5,200 level, so the directional-upside reading and the strict at-or-above reading agree. Both source series are unrevised daily index closes and match exactly, so there is no conflicting credible evidence. Note for the dedupe stage (informational, not a resolution issue): this record and tom-lee-202312-sp500-2024 carry an identical claim_canonical and an equivalent criterion, differing only in made_on (2023-12-07 vs 2023-12-30); they are resolved identically here on the same evidence. No outcome value assigned and no scoring performed, per stage scope.
Sources
2024 Year Ahead: Inflation down plus higher demand = P/E expansion
Fundstrat Global Advisors ·
What the stock market's biggest bull expects in 2024. Fundstrat's Lee reveals highest S&P 500 forecast on Wall Street.
MarketWatch ·
Wall Street bull gives highest 2024 S&P forecast yet
Yahoo Finance ·
2024 Year Ahead: Inflation down plus higher demand = P/E expansion
Fundstrat Direct ·
Wall Street strategist had spot-on 2023 S&P 500 forecast
Business Insider ·
4 Analysts Chime in on 2024 Stock Market Price Predictions
InvestorPlace ·
Tom Lee Predicts S&P 500 Surge In 2024 Despite Early-Year Downturns
Benzinga ·
The stock market could soar as much as 30% next year as expectations reset
Yahoo Finance / Business Insider ·
Optimist Tom Lee Projects Large Gains for 2024 Stock Market
The Wealth Advisor ·
Tom Lee (Fundstrat): S&P 500 Year-End Target Track Record
AnaChart ·
Tom Lee, who nailed 2024's rally, is out with his 2025 outlook. What he sees next
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 final close of 2024 was 5,881.63 on 2024-12-31, which is at or above the 5,200 criterion level (exceeds it by 681.63 points). FRED series SP500 (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices) daily closes: 2024-12-30 = 5,906.94; 2024-12-31 = 5,881.63. Retrieved as raw CSV via https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SP500&cosd=2023-12-01&coed=2025-01-10
Independent cross-check: Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily chart data returns an identical 2024-12-31 close of 5,881.63, matching FRED to the cent.
Context on the path to the target (not required by the criterion, which resolves on the final close only): the S&P 500 first closed at or above 5,200 on 2024-03-20 at 5,224.62, and its highest close of 2024 was 6,090.27 on 2024-12-06.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 reaches 5,200 by the end of 2024.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-12-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources