Full record
HitmarketsUS inflation falls in 2024 and the S&P 500 price/earnings multiple expands toward 20x.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“P/E: We see P/E expanding in 2024 towards 20X.”
US inflation falls in 2024 and the S&P 500 price/earnings multiple expands toward 20x.
- Made on
- 2023-12-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
Two legs, both required. (a) Inflation down: US headline CPI year-over-year for December 2024 is lower than for December 2023. (b) P/E expansion 'towards 20X': the S&P 500's forward 12-month price/earnings multiple is higher at end-2024 than at 2023-12-07 and reaches at least 19x (the operational reading of 'towards 20X') at some point during 2024. TRUE only if both hold; FALSE if either leg fails.
Both required legs were checked against the written criterion and both hold. Leg (a): Dec-2024 headline CPI year-over-year (2.9%) is below Dec-2023 (3.4%). Leg (b): the S&P 500 forward 12-month P/E was 18.8x at the 2023-12-07 baseline and 21.4x at end-2024, so it is higher at end-2024; and it reached at least 19x during 2024, evidenced directly by the 21.6x reading at 2024-09-30 cited in the same FactSet report, so the 'towards 20X' operational threshold was met with room to spare. Sourcing caveat for auditability: the forward P/E is a vendor-computed series with no official/government publisher, so both readings are taken from the same vendor (FactSet Earnings Insight) to keep the basis consistent between the baseline and the end-2024 measurement; using one vendor on both ends is the conservative choice because forward P/E levels differ across vendors while the direction of change does not. The Dec 8, 2023 report is the FactSet edition covering the 2023-12-07 close, and Jan 3, 2025 is the first edition after 2024 year-end (it is computed on the 2025-01-02 close of 5868.55). Numbers were extracted from the published PDFs directly. No conflicting credible evidence found on either leg.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Leg (a), inflation. BLS CPI-U, US city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted (series CUUR0000SA0), December index values: Dec 2022 = 296.797, Dec 2023 = 306.746, Dec 2024 = 315.605. Year-over-year: December 2023 = +3.35% (BLS published 3.4%), December 2024 = +2.89% (BLS published 2.9%). December 2024 headline CPI year-over-year is therefore lower than December 2023, satisfying leg (a).
Same CPI figures independently retrieved from FRED series CPIAUCNS (CPI-U, all items, not seasonally adjusted): 2022-12 = 296.797, 2023-12 = 306.746, 2024-12 = 315.605.
Leg (b), baseline. FactSet Earnings Insight dated December 8, 2023 (the report covering the 2023-12-07 close, i.e. the claim date): 'The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.8. This P/E ratio is equal to the 5-year average (18.8) but above the 10-year average (17.6).' Baseline forward P/E = 18.8x.
Leg (b), end-2024 reading and the intra-2024 path. FactSet Earnings Insight dated January 3, 2025, the first report after year-end 2024: 'The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 21.4, which is above the 5-year average of 19.7. It is also slightly below the forward 12-month P/E ratio of 21.6 recorded at the end of the third quarter (September 30).' So the multiple was 21.4x at end-2024 and 21.6x at 2024-09-30.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation falls in 2024 and the S&P 500 price/earnings m…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-12-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources