The US does not enter a recession in 2024.

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2024-12-31

TRUE if no US recession begins during calendar 2024 — i.e. the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has not dated a peak (recession start) falling in 2024, and there is no two-consecutive-quarter contraction in real GDP starting in 2024. FALSE if a US recession is dated as beginning at any point in 2024. The subsidiary 'weak jobs in first half 2024' clause is hedged ('probably') and is not separately graded.

Both prongs of the written criterion are satisfied on official data: (a) NBER has dated no business cycle peak falling in 2024 — the most recent peak remains February 2020; (b) real GDP had zero negative quarters in 2024, so no two-consecutive-quarter contraction could begin in 2024, including the cross-year case (2024Q4 was +1.9, so no 2024Q4+2025Q1 pair). Standing caveat recorded for transparency, not a blocker: NBER dating is deliberately retrospective, so a future committee determination could in principle re-date a peak into 2024. That risk is negligible here given all-positive 2024 quarterly growth in both the original and revised vintages and more than 18 months elapsed with no announcement, so the record is treated as resolved rather than pending. Quarterly figures shifted slightly between vintages (Q3 3.1 -> 3.3, Q4 2.3 -> 1.9 after annual revisions); this is ordinary BEA revision, not conflicting evidence, since the sign is positive in every vintage. Per the criterion, the hedged 'weak jobs in first half 2024' clause was not graded and no jobs evidence was gathered. No outcome value assigned and no scoring performed, per stage scope.

Sources

• 2024 Year Ahead: Inflation down plus higher demand = P/E expansion

  Fundstrat Global Advisors · 2023-12-07

  Source