Full record
MissmarketsEquities finish September 2023 net positive, holding above the August lows
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I actually still think just using these stats were probably positive between now and the end of the month”
Equities finish September 2023 net positive, holding above the August lows
- Made on
- 2023-09-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-09-29
S&P 500 posts a positive return from the statement date through 2023-09-30 (September 2023 net positive) without breaking its Aug 2023 lows
Both prongs of the criterion FAIL: return from 9/8 to 9/30 is negative (-3.8%), and September closes (4288.05) fell well below the August low close (4369.71) and intraday August low (~4335). Prediction did not come true. resolved_on = last trading day of September (2023-09-29).
Sources
September Slump or September Surge? 📈 Here's What the Stats Say! 🔍
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FRED S&P 500: statement-date (2023-09-08) close 4457.49 vs. final September close (2023-09-29) 4288.05 = -3.80%. The month was NET NEGATIVE, not positive.
S&P Dow Jones Indices: the S&P 500 fell 4.87% in September 2023, its worst month of the year, closing ~4288. The index also broke below its August 2023 low close of 4369.71 (Aug 18) — the second condition ('holding above the August lows') also failed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Equities finish September 2023 net positive, holding above…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-09-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources