Full record
HitmarketsEquities post positive/bullish returns in the second half of 2023, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I think we have to start thinking about fed cuts which is actually pretty bullish for the second half”
Equities post positive/bullish returns in the second half of 2023, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations
- Made on
- 2023-08-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-29
S&P 500 closes 2023 higher than its 2023-06-30 close (positive H2 2023 return)
Criterion: S&P 500 2023 final close > 2023-06-30 close. 4,769.83 > 4,450.38 (+7.18%) → positive H2 met. The 'supported by Fed rate-cut expectations' rationale is contextual and not part of the pass/fail criterion; the late-2023 rally was in fact driven substantially by rising rate-cut expectations, so the mechanism was consistent.
Sources
Navigating Uncertainty and Opportunities 📈📉
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Directional confidence phrase 'pretty bullish' is present in the verbatim but left null; capturing it gives the quantify stage the actual commitment marker to derive p from.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Equities post positive/bullish returns in the second half o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-08-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources