Full record
MissmarketsThe US stock market bottoms on or before Jackson Hole (Friday 2023-08-25)
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“we think markets are going to bottom sometime between uh Monday and Jackson Hole which is this Friday August 25th”
The US stock market bottoms on or before Jackson Hole (Friday 2023-08-25)
- Made on
- 2023-08-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-09-21
The S&P 500's closing low for the Aug 2023 pullback occurs on or before 2023-08-25, with no lower close afterward through end of Sept 2023
First part met (Aug low close 4369.71 was on 2023-08-18, before Jackson Hole), but the 'no lower close through end of Sept 2023' condition was violated starting 2023-09-21 (4330.00 close). Criterion is a conjunction and fails. Overall outcome for scoring stage; no o assigned here.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500's closing low during the Aug 2023 pullback was 4369.71 on 2023-08-18 (on or before Jackson Hole 2023-08-25, so the first part of the criterion held). However, the criterion required NO lower close through end of Sept 2023, and the index closed BELOW 4369.71 on multiple days in late September: 4330.00 (Sep 21), 4320.06 (Sep 22), 4337.44 (Sep 25), and a period low of 4273.53 (Sep 26), 4274.51 (Sep 27), 4299.70 (Sep 28), 4288.05 (Sep 29). The market did NOT bottom on/before Jackson Hole; lower closes followed through end of Sept. FRED SP500 daily closes.
Corrections
- Date: Transcript opens 'today is Tuesday August 22nd after the close' and the video title is '08/22/23'; 2023-08-25 is only the upload date, not the utterance/airing date. Deadline unchanged.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market bottoms on or before Jackson Hole (Frid…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-08-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources