Full record
HiteconomyThe July 2023 CPI report (released ~2023-08-10) comes in tame relative to expectations
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I think next week the July CPI report is probably tame”
The July 2023 CPI report (released ~2023-08-10) comes in tame relative to expectations
- Made on
- 2023-08-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-08-10
July 2023 CPI prints at or below consensus (headline and/or core not exceeding forecast)
Criterion: July 2023 CPI prints at or below consensus (headline and/or core not exceeding forecast). Headline 3.2% < ~3.3% consensus and core 0.1pp below consensus → met. Nuance: headline YoY ticked up from June's 3.0% (first acceleration in 13 months), but 'tame relative to expectations' concerns the consensus comparison, which it beat.
Sources
August Market Update: Is the Worst Over or More Turbulence Ahead? 📉🤔
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
July 2023 CPI (BLS release 2023-08-10): headline CPI +3.2% YoY (+0.2% MoM); core CPI +4.7% YoY (+0.2% MoM). Headline came in below the ~3.3% consensus; core was ~0.1pp below consensus. Print was at/below expectations = tame.
Contemporaneous reporting: 'July CPI report shows inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected'; core ran 4.7% YoY, below estimates; both measures +0.2% on the month.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The July 2023 CPI report (released ~2023-08-10) comes in ta…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-08-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources