Full record
HiteconomyThe Fed's Jackson Hole communication on 2023-08-25 causes interest rates to fall
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
HiteconomyāI think it's going to be quite easy for the FED to communicate something that actually causes rates to fallā
The Fed's Jackson Hole communication on 2023-08-25 causes interest rates to fall
- Made on
- 2023-08-22
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.51
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-09-01
10-year Treasury yields fall in the week following the 2023-08-25 Jackson Hole speech
Criterion (10y yields fall in week following 2023-08-25) is met: 4.25% -> 4.18% by Sep 1, with an intra-week trough of 4.09% on Aug 31. Note: the drop was more attributable to soft incoming labor data than to Powell's Jackson Hole message, which was read as hawkish; the written criterion is level-based only. No o assigned.
Sources
08/22/23 Tom Lee's Macro Minute - August Trends & Timing š
YouTube Ā·
Evidence of what happened
10-year Treasury par yield (FRED DGS10) closed at 4.25% on 2023-08-25 (Jackson Hole day). In the week following, yields fell every session: 4.20% (Aug 28), 4.12% (Aug 29), 4.12% (Aug 30), 4.09% (Aug 31), and 4.18% (Sep 1) ā all below the 4.25% Aug-25 level. 10-year yields fell in the week following the speech, aided by softer JOLTS/ADP and the Sep 1 jobs data.
Corrections
- Date: Title '08/22/23' and 'today is Tuesday August 22nd after the close'; recording predates Aug 23. Deadline (2023-09-01, Jackson Hole anchored) unchanged.
Effect on the score
+1.51- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Fed's Jackson Hole communication on 2023-08-25 causes iā¦- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-08-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources