Full record
MissmarketsThe bulk of August 2023's market weakness is already behind us; the rest of August does not see materially worse declines
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I think we front loaded much of the weakness for August”
The bulk of August 2023's market weakness is already behind us; the rest of August does not see materially worse declines
- Made on
- 2023-08-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-08-31
The S&P 500's largest peak-to-trough drawdown over 2023-08-07 to 2023-08-31 does not exceed the drawdown already seen 2023-08-01 to 2023-08-06
Criterion: max peak-to-trough drawdown over 2023-08-07 to 2023-08-31 does NOT exceed the drawdown already seen 2023-08-01 to 2023-08-06. It did exceed it (3.29% vs 2.16%; index kept falling to a monthly low on Aug 18). Fact pattern resolved; the criterion was not satisfied. (Drawdowns computed on closing prices; using intraday highs/lows would widen both windows but does not change the ordering — the Aug 18 low is the month's trough.) No outcome value assigned here per stage separation.
Sources
August Market Update: Is the Worst Over or More Turbulence Ahead? 📉🤔
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Early-August drawdown (2023-08-01 to 2023-08-06; sessions Aug 1-4): peak 4,576.73 (Aug 1 close) to trough 4,478.03 (Aug 4 close) = -2.16%.
Rest-of-August drawdown (2023-08-07 to 2023-08-31): running peak 4,518.44 (Aug 7 close) to trough 4,369.71 (Aug 18 close) = -3.29%. The later drawdown (-3.29%) was materially LARGER than the early-August drawdown (-2.16%), i.e. weakness was NOT already behind us.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The bulk of August 2023's market weakness is already behind…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-08-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources