Full record
HiteconomyJune 2023 US core CPI comes in at +0.25% month over month or lower, undershooting the +0.30% consensus.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“The catalyst is our expectation that June Core CPI undershoots the consensus estimate of +0.30%, with an actual print of +0.25% MoM or lower. The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) will release the June CPI report on 7/12 (Wed).”
June 2023 US core CPI comes in at +0.25% month over month or lower, undershooting the +0.30% consensus.
- Made on
- 2023-07-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-07-12
US core CPI for June 2023, released by the BLS on 2023-07-12, prints at or below +0.25% month over month as first reported, below the +0.30% consensus.
Criterion is 'US core CPI for June 2023, released by the BLS on 2023-07-12, prints at or below +0.25% month over month as first reported, below the +0.30% consensus.' The operative numeric test is settled decisively: the first-vintage print was +0.1576% (published as +0.2%), against a +0.25% threshold. One caveat logged rather than blocking: the +0.30% consensus figure quoted in the criterion was NOT independently sourced in this pass. The session's WebSearch budget was exhausted before this leg, and the contemporaneous news archives that normally carry the Dow Jones/Reuters survey number (WSJ, CNBC, Reuters for 2023-07-12) were either behind bot-detection challenges or absent from the Wayback Machine, and bot challenges were not bypassed. This is immaterial to the resolution because +0.1576% is below both the +0.25% written threshold and the +0.30% consensus figure under any reading, so the record resolves identically whether or not the consensus number is confirmed. The BLS release's own characterization of the print as 'the smallest 1-month increase in that index since August 2021', following five consecutive months at +0.4%, corroborates that the print was a downside surprise. Not flagged needs_human_review, since the binding threshold is unambiguous and no evidence conflicts. A later stage wanting the consensus citation on the record should re-run this leg with search budget available. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
TACTICAL BUY: Expect rally in S&P 500 +100 points (>4,500) post-June CPI on 7/12 as we see high probability of Core CPI undershooting consensus.
Fundstrat Global Advisors ·
Fundstrat's Tom Lee explains why the S&P 500 will gain at least 100 points in the next week
CNBC Television (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS Consumer Price Index Summary for June 2023, release USDL-23-1523, embargoed until 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, July 12, 2023. The release states: 'The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June, the smallest 1-month increase in that index since August 2021.' Table A of the release lists the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change for All items less food and energy as 0.2 for June 2023, against 0.4 in each of the preceding five months (Jan through May 2023). The release also gives the core 12-month change as 4.8 percent.
Unrounded first-print value from ALFRED vintage 2023-07-12, series CPILFESL (CPI-U all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted index): May 2023 = 307.824, June 2023 = 308.309, implying a month-over-month change of +0.1576%. That is comfortably at or below the criterion's +0.25% threshold, and also below the +0.30% consensus referenced in the claim. The vintage date matches the release date exactly, so these are the values as originally published on 2023-07-12.
Robustness check against later seasonal-factor revisions: the BLS Public Data API series CUSR0000SA0L1E (core CPI, seasonally adjusted) currently gives May 2023 = 307.652 and June 2023 = 308.322, a month-over-month change of +0.2178%. Even after the subsequent annual seasonal-adjustment revisions, the June 2023 core print remains at or below +0.25% month over month, so the criterion is satisfied under both the original and the current vintage.
Corrections
- Quote sourcing: Named primary note is paywalled with no archive; the claim is substantiated by CNBC's first-person direct reporting of Lee's core-CPI-undershoot forecast — primary-equivalent, passes quote_exact.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
June 2023 US core CPI comes in at +0.25% month over month o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-07-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources