Full record
MissmarketsApril 2023 is one of the strongest months for the stock market in 2023.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“April is going to be one of the strongest months in 2023 based on the rule of the first five days.”
April 2023 is one of the strongest months for the stock market in 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-04-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.89
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-29
April 2023 ranks among the three best of the twelve calendar months of 2023 for the S&P 500, measured by monthly price return. The deadline is 2023-12-31 because the ranking cannot be settled until all twelve months are known.
Criterion is 'April 2023 ranks among the three best of the twelve calendar months of 2023 for the S&P 500, measured by monthly price return.' April placed 7th of 12 at +1.46%, well outside the top three (cutoff for third place was January's +6.18%). Settled only once all twelve months were known, so resolved_on is 2023-12-29, the final trading session of 2023. Monthly price return was measured on a month-end-close to month-end-close basis, matching the criterion's 'monthly price return' wording (price only, dividends excluded); April's ranking is not close to the boundary and is robust to reasonable alternative conventions. No conflicting evidence found. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Lee: Stocks are levitating because earnings season will be better than feared
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 calendar-month price returns for all twelve months of 2023, computed from FRED daily closes using each month's final trading session versus the prior month's final trading session (baseline 2022 year-end close 3,839.50 on 2022-12-30): Jan +6.18% (4076.60), Feb -2.61% (3970.15), Mar +3.51% (4109.31), Apr +1.46% (4169.48), May +0.25% (4179.83), Jun +6.47% (4450.38), Jul +3.11% (4588.96), Aug -1.77% (4507.66), Sep -4.87% (4288.05), Oct -2.20% (4193.80), Nov +8.92% (4567.80), Dec +4.42% (4769.83). Ranked best to worst, the three best months of 2023 were November (+8.92%), June (+6.47%) and January (+6.18%). April 2023 ranked 7th of 12 at +1.46%, behind also December (+4.42%), March (+3.51%) and July (+3.11%).
Independent cross-check of the underlying close series: the S&P 500 annual price return table on Wikipedia's S&P 500 article gives 2023 as +24.23% (price change, excluding dividends; +26.29% total return). The FRED-derived closes imply 4,769.83 / 3,839.50 - 1 = +24.2305%, matching the published +24.23% to the reported precision and confirming both the 2022 year-end and 2023 year-end closes used as anchors for the monthly return ladder.
Corrections
- Quote sourcing: Source is a CNBC interview segment — a reputable outlet carrying Lee's first-person on-air words, not his own channel/column. reputable_secondary_direct is the precise tier; still a scoreable tier, scorability unchanged.
Effect on the score
-0.89- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
April 2023 is one of the strongest months for the stock mar…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources