Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 gains more than 20% over calendar year 2023 (stated probability 53%).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“The 'maths' show probability of 2023 seeing >20% far higher than expected (53%)”
The S&P 500 gains more than 20% over calendar year 2023 (stated probability 53%).
- Made on
- 2023-01-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.23
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-29
The S&P 500 price index gains more than 20% over calendar 2023: the final 2023 close is above 4,607.40, which is 20% above the 2022-12-30 close of 3,839.50.
Criterion arithmetic verified: 3,839.50 x 1.20 = 4,607.40; realized +24.2305% on the price index. The claim carries an explicit stated probability of 53%, so the quantify stage should treat it as a probabilistic forecast rather than a binary assertion. Evidence overlaps entirely with the two other year-end-2023 index records (same base and final close) — correlated, not independent.
Sources
The 'maths' show probability of 2023 seeing >20% far higher than expected (53%). VIX key for 2023 returns, not EPS growth
Fundstrat Direct ·
Fundstrat's Tom Lee expects a 20 percent rally this year
CNBC ·
A Fed 'pause' in spring is pregnant pause and a pretext for a substantial easing of financial conditions
Fundstrat Direct ·
Evidence of what happened
Cboe's SPX daily history gives the 2022-12-30 base close of 3,839.50 and the 2023-12-29 final close of 4,769.83, a calendar-2023 price gain of +24.2305%. The criterion's >20% threshold of 4,607.40 was exceeded by 162.43 points.
FRED series SP500 (St. Louis Fed, source S&P Dow Jones Indices), archived 2024-01-02, independently confirms the 4,769.83 close for 2023-12-29.
Secondary cross-check: the standard S&P 500 annual-returns table reports a 2023 price change of +24.23%, consistent with the value computed from exchange closes.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.23- How sure they sounded
- 53%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 gains more than 20% over calendar year 2023 (st…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources