Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 rallies to at least 4,400.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I think that the June rally and the sort of false Dawn pivot is a as a minimum template that was about a 20 rally over 25 trading days I think this one's going to be far stronger stronger than 20 percent from the low 20 at least 25 from the 3500 so something that could carry us to 44 or higher”
The S&P 500 rallies to at least 4,400.
- Made on
- 2022-11-11
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-06-15
TRUE if the S&P 500 closes at or above 4,400 at any point between 2022-11-11 and 2025-11-11; FALSE if it never closes at or above 4,400 in that window. No timing-miss penalty applies — the horizon was imposed by Avow, not stated by the speaker.
Resolved; no outcome value assigned here. The criterion asks only whether the S&P 500 closed at or above 4,400 at any point in the window, and it did — on 2023-06-15 at 4425.84, roughly seven months after the 2022-11-11 statement date and well inside the 2025-11-11 horizon. The index went on to close far above that level for the remainder of the window, so the threshold was not a marginal or single-day touch. The criterion explicitly disclaims any timing-miss penalty because the three-year horizon was imposed by Avow rather than stated by the speaker, so the roughly seven-month lag should not be treated as a miss. Both independent price sources agree to the cent; no conflicting evidence. resolved_on is the first date the threshold was met, not the deadline. Note this same 4,425.84 close on 2023-06-15 is the date that satisfied condition (b) of the separate tom-lee-202208-new-bull-market record, since that record's +20% threshold computes to 4400.12 — the two records share a resolution date by coincidence of threshold, not by duplication.
Sources
Markets will see a stronger rally that carries the S&P to at least 4,400, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC Television (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 daily closes (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED). Within the criterion window 2022-11-11 to 2025-11-11 (752 trading sessions), the first close at or above 4,400 was 2023-06-15 at 4425.84. The prior session, 2023-06-14, closed at 4372.59, just below the threshold.
Machine-readable FRED daily series used to scan the full window for the first close at or above the 4,400 threshold.
Independent cross-check via the Yahoo Finance chart API for ^GSPC daily bars: 2023-06-14 close 4372.59 and 2023-06-15 close 4425.84, matching the FRED/S&P DJI values exactly.
Corrections
- Quote sourcing: CNBC Television YouTube channel, not Lee's own; verbatim confirmed by a third-party CNBC transcript and CNBC's own 4,400 headline — reputable_secondary_direct, not fetched_primary.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 rallies to at least 4,400.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources