Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve raises rates by 50 basis points at its December 2022 meeting.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I think the Futures Market has it right that they're looking at 50 basis points and unless you know we start to get so much cooler inflation you know there's I would say the odds are that it's either 50 or 25 not 50 or 75”
The Federal Reserve raises rates by 50 basis points at its December 2022 meeting.
- Made on
- 2022-11-11
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-14
TRUE if the FOMC's December 2022 decision (meeting concluding 2022-12-14) raises the federal funds target range by exactly 50 bp; FALSE for any other outcome, including 0, 25 or 75 bp.
Resolved; no outcome value assigned here. The December 2022 FOMC decision was an increase of exactly 50 bp, which matches the criterion's TRUE branch precisely (the criterion requires exactly 50 bp and specifies FALSE for 0, 25 or 75 bp). This also marked the Fed's step-down from the four consecutive 75 bp hikes delivered in June, July, September and November 2022. Two independent official Federal Reserve sources agree; no conflicting evidence. resolved_on equals the meeting conclusion and statement date, 2022-12-14, which is also the record's deadline — the prediction resolved exactly on time rather than late.
Sources
Markets will see a stronger rally that carries the S&P to at least 4,400, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC Television (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC statement dated December 14, 2022 (the meeting held 2022-12-13/14, exactly the meeting named in the criterion): 'the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent'. The prior range was 3.75-4.00%, making this an increase of exactly 50 basis points.
Federal Reserve official open market operations table independently confirming a 50 bp increase to a 4.25-4.50% target range for the December 2022 decision (effective 2022-12-15), and confirming that the preceding 2022-11-02 decision had set the range at 3.75-4.00%.
Corrections
- Quote sourcing: Source is CNBC Television's YouTube channel, not Lee's own, and no transcript was cached to disk; the verbatim is confirmed by a third-party CNBC transcript — reputable_secondary_direct, not fetched_primary.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve raises rates by 50 basis points at its…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources