Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation cools materially over the next six to twelve months.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“inflation i think is cooling pretty rapidly we can see it in all the leading indicators so our inflation dashboards really show that over the next six to twelve months inflation will cool”
US inflation cools materially over the next six to twelve months.
- Made on
- 2022-08-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-08-10
'Cool pretty rapidly' operationalized as a material disinflation: TRUE if US headline CPI year-over-year falls by at least 2 percentage points from the most recent print available on 2022-08-05 (the June 2022 print of 9.1%) by the July 2023 CPI report; FALSE if the decline is smaller than 2 percentage points or inflation is flat or higher.
Criterion is fully determinate and satisfied by a wide margin: headline CPI fell from 9.1 percent year over year (June 2022) to 3.2 percent (July 2023), a 5.9 point decline against a 2 point threshold. Note a minor date mismatch in the record itself: the deadline field is 2023-08-05 but the criterion names the July 2023 CPI report, which was released 2023-08-10. This does not create ambiguity, because the June 2023 report released 2023-07-12 already showed 3.0 percent, a 6.1 point decline, before the 2023-08-05 deadline; the criterion is met under either reading. resolved_on is set to 2023-08-10, the evaluation point the criterion explicitly names. All figures are BLS CPI-U all items, US city average, not seasonally adjusted, matching the year-over-year basis the criterion specifies. No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
Fundstrat's Tom Lee makes his case for S&P to reach 4,800 by year end
CNBC Television (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
Baseline: US headline CPI-U (all items, not seasonally adjusted) 12-month change for June 2022 was 9.1 percent, the most recent print available on 2022-08-05 (released 2022-07-13). Computed as 9.06 percent from official BLS index values, June 2022 = 296.311 versus June 2021 = 271.696, series CUUR0000SA0 retrieved from the BLS public API on 2026-08-02; BLS publishes the rounded figure as 9.1 percent.
Endpoint: US headline CPI-U 12-month change for July 2023 was 3.2 percent (computed 3.18 percent from BLS index values, July 2023 = 305.691 versus July 2022 = 296.276, series CUUR0000SA0). That is a decline of about 5.9 percentage points from the 9.1 percent June 2022 baseline, well beyond the 2 percentage point threshold in the criterion.
Canonical publication of the July 2023 figure is the BLS Consumer Price Index news release dated 2023-08-10. Direct automated retrieval of bls.gov news release pages returned HTTP 403, so the value was confirmed instead via the BLS public timeseries API for the same official series (CUUR0000SA0).
The 2 percentage point disinflation threshold was crossed well before the endpoint: November 2022 CPI-U 12-month change was 7.1 percent (computed 7.11 percent, released 2022-12-13), exactly 2.0 points below the 9.1 percent baseline, and December 2022 was 6.5 percent (computed 6.45 percent, released 2023-01-12). The June 2023 print of 3.0 percent (computed 2.97 percent) was released 2023-07-12, a 6.1 point decline already published before the record's 2023-08-05 deadline.
Corrections
- Date: made_on must equal the correct transcript's upload_date.
- horizon deadline: Recompute the +12mo outer-bound deadline from the corrected made_on (immaterial to the TRUE resolution).
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation cools materially over the next six to twelve m…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources