The US avoids a recession, experiencing a growth scare instead, and the S&P 500 does not fall to the consensus 3,100 level.

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2023-08-01

TRUE if both (a) the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee dates no US recession beginning between 2022-08-01 and 2023-08-01 and (b) the S&P 500 never closes at or below 3,100 in that window; FALSE if either a recession is so dated or the index closes at or below 3,100.

Both legs of the conjunctive criterion are satisfied by the evidence: no NBER-dated recession beginning in the window, and no S&P 500 close at or below 3,100 in the window. resolved_on is set to 2023-08-01, the window end date, because the criterion requires the full window to elapse. On NBER lag: the committee dates turning points retrospectively and in principle could date a past peak later, but three years have now passed with no announcement and no candidate peak, so this is treated as settled rather than pending. Widely reported real GDP contractions in 2022 Q1 and Q2 did not produce an NBER recession call, which is the standard the criterion names. No conflicting credible evidence found.

Sources

• Consensus still looking for a recession and S&P 500 3,100 or lower but US tracking for a 'growth scare'

  Fundstrat Direct · 2022-08-01

  Source