Full record
MissmarketsThe 2022 equity bear market low is in as of 2022-07-29; the S&P 500 sets no lower low.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“This is the August 1982 moment, bottom is in but Fed is two months away from a pivot.”
The 2022 equity bear market low is in as of 2022-07-29; the S&P 500 sets no lower low.
- Made on
- 2022-07-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-09-26
TRUE if the S&P 500 never closes below its lowest close of the 2022 bear market prior to 2022-07-29 (the 2022-06-16 closing low) at any point from 2022-07-29 through 2025-07-29; FALSE if it closes below that level within the window. The outlet-supplied 'above 4,800 by year-end 2022' leg is not part of the scored claim.
A lower closing low than the 2022-06-16 level was set inside the window, starting 2022-09-26 and bottoming at 3577.03 on 2022-10-12, roughly 2.4 percent below the 2022-06-16 reference close. resolved_on is set to 2022-09-26, the first date the written criterion became determinate. Per the criterion, the outlet-supplied 'above 4,800 by year-end 2022' leg was excluded from this record and is handled separately under tom-lee-202208-sp500-4800-ye. No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
The 2022 bear market closing low prior to 2022-07-29 was 3666.77 on 2022-06-16, the reference level specified in the criterion. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P 500 daily close series (SP500) via FRED, retrieved 2026-08-02.
Within the scored window 2022-07-29 through 2025-07-29 the S&P 500 closed below 3666.77 on 10 trading days. First breach: 2022-09-26 close 3655.04. Lowest close in the window: 2022-10-12 at 3577.03. Last breach: 2022-10-20 close 3665.78. Computed from the SP500 daily close series via FRED.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The 2022 equity bear market low is in as of 2022-07-29; the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-07-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources