Full record
HitmarketsThe first half of 2022 is treacherous for US equities (a difficult, drawdown-heavy stretch).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“3 reasons we see a "violent" v-shaped rally in February, but in context of treacherous 1H2022”
The first half of 2022 is treacherous for US equities (a difficult, drawdown-heavy stretch).
- Made on
- 2022-02-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-06-30
'Treacherous' operationalized as a losing, drawdown-heavy half: TRUE if, between 2022-01-01 and 2022-06-30, the S&P 500 both (a) records a peak-to-trough decline of at least 10% on a closing basis and (b) posts a negative price return for the half; FALSE if either leg fails.
Unambiguous TRUE-direction outcome: both legs of the conjunctive criterion are satisfied with wide margins. Leg (a) required a 10% closing drawdown and delivered 23.55%; leg (b) required a negative half and delivered -20.58%. H1 2022 was the S&P 500's worst first half since 1970, and the index entered a bear market (>20% off the January closing high) during the period, so the 'treacherous' characterization is met under any reasonable reading. Leg (a) became determinate on 2022-02-22 and leg (b) on 2022-06-30; resolved_on is set to 2022-06-30, the date the conjunction as a whole became determinate. Robust to the choice of half-return base (2021-12-31 close vs first 2022 close). Two independent sources agree exactly. No archive_url supplied because no archive capture was independently verified.
Sources
3 reasons we see a "violent" v-shaped rally in February, but in context of treacherous 1H2022
Fundstrat Direct ·
Evidence of what happened
Leg (a) - closing drawdown: within 2022-01-01 to 2022-06-30 the S&P 500 fell from a closing peak of 4796.56 (2022-01-03) to a closing trough of 3666.77 (2022-06-16), a peak-to-trough decline of -23.55% on a closing basis, comfortably exceeding the 10% requirement. The -10% line (4316.90) was first breached at the 2022-02-22 close of 4304.76 (-10.25%). Source: FRED series SP500.
Leg (b) - half-year price return: 2021-12-31 close 4766.18 to 2022-06-30 close 3785.38 = -20.58%, a decisively negative first half. Measured instead from the first 2022 close (4796.56 on 2022-01-03) the return is -21.08%; both framings are negative. Source: FRED series SP500.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily history independently confirms all anchors: 2022-01-03 close 4796.56, 2022-06-16 close 3666.77, 2022-06-30 close 3785.38, yielding the same -23.55% maximum closing drawdown and the same -20.58% first-half price return.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The first half of 2022 is treacherous for US equities (a di…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources