Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 reaches 5,000 during 2022.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“Energy leadership + Tech turning > 50% market = base case 5,000 still possible”
The S&P 500 reaches 5,000 during 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-01-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-30
TRUE if the S&P 500 closes at or above 5,000 at any point between 2022-01-12 and 2022-12-31; FALSE if it never closes at or above 5,000 in that window.
Unambiguous FALSE-direction outcome. The index never closed at or above 5,000 at any point in the specified window, and in fact never traded there intraday either, so the resolution is robust to a closing-vs-intraday reading of the criterion. It is also robust to the window's start date: the maximum close of all of calendar 2022 (4796.56, 2022-01-03) was still 203.44 points below 5,000, so widening the window to the full year would not change the result. The index first closed above 5,000 only in February 2024, well outside the deadline. Resolved on 2022-12-30, the last trading day of the window (2022-12-31 was a Saturday); a never-happened criterion becomes determinate only when the window closes. Two independent sources agree exactly. No archive_url supplied because no archive capture was independently verified.
Sources
Energy leadership + Tech turning >50% market = base case 5,000 still possible
Fundstrat Direct ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 daily closes across the full 2022-01-12 to 2022-12-31 window (244 trading days, FRED series SP500): zero closes at or above 5,000. The highest close anywhere in the window was 4726.35, on 2022-01-12 (the window's own first day), a shortfall of 273.65 index points from the 5,000 threshold.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily history independently confirms zero closes >= 5,000 in 2022; the highest close of the entire calendar year was 4796.56 on 2022-01-03 (before the window opens), and the highest intraday print in the window was 4748.83 - both below 5,000. The 2022 low close was 3577.03 on 2022-10-12.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 reaches 5,000 during 2022.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources