Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 is flat or down over the first half of 2022.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“For next year, I think it's going to be treacherous. I think it's going to be a much tougher year than 2021, and one of the reasons is you have the midterm elections. You've got the Fed raising rates and liftoff, and it looks like it's going to happen before the middle of the year, and you still have the lingering issues of the supply chain and inflation and Covid. I think it's easily flat or down in the first half. I think we could be negative year-to-date by the middle of the year.”
The S&P 500 is flat or down over the first half of 2022.
- Made on
- 2021-12-21
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-06-30
The S&P 500's closing level on 2022-06-30 is at or below its 2021-12-31 close (flat or down year-to-date at the midpoint of 2022); a gain of more than 1% over that span resolves the claim false.
Outcome evidence only; no outcome value assigned. The criterion's condition is unambiguous on the data: the 2022-06-30 close (3,785.38) was well below the 2021-12-31 close (4,766.18), so the 'flat or down' condition holds by a wide margin and the >1% gain falsifier is nowhere near triggered. Independent corroboration: Interactive Brokers weekly bars for CBOE SPX show the highest weekly high in the last week of June 2022 was 3,945.86, roughly 17% below the 2021 year-end close, so no plausible data revision could flip this. Minor source discrepancy noted and not treated as a conflict: Wikipedia rounds the first-half fall to 21% while the index series gives -20.58% (Wikipedia appears to measure from the 2022-01-03 peak close rather than the 2021-12-31 close); both agree on direction and magnitude. No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 daily OHLC (^GSPC): the 2021-12-31 close was 4,766.18 and the 2022-06-30 close was 3,785.38, a decline of 20.58% over the first half of 2022 — far beyond the criterion's 'flat or down' condition and the opposite of the >1% gain that would have resolved it false. Closes into the half-year mark were 3,900.11 (06-27), 3,821.55 (06-28), 3,818.83 (06-29) and 3,785.38 (06-30); the index never traded back above its 2021 year-end close after the first week of January 2022 (highest 2022 close: 4,796.56 on 2022-01-03).
Wikipedia's account of the 2022 market decline states that in the opening six months of 2022 the S&P 500 fell 21%, the worst six-month start to a year since 1970, after peaking for the year at its 2022-01-03 close of 4,796. (The precise index-data figure for 2021-12-31 to 2022-06-30 is -20.58%; the article's 21% is a rounded/approximate rendering of the same first-half decline.)
Wikipedia's S&P 500 annual performance table records a 2022 index change of -19.44% (total return -18.11%), corroborating that 2022 was a down year whose first half carried the bulk of the decline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 is flat or down over the first half of 2022.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-12-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources