Full record
HitmarketsUS stocks bottom during the week of 29 November 2021 and stage a V-shaped rebound, rallying into year-end 2021.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“We would be aggressive buyers of this pullback. As with the case for Beta and Delta variants, the 'bark' has proven worse than the bite in each of those precedent instances. The future is uncertain, but the probabilities favor a V-shaped rebound, starting this week.”
US stocks bottom during the week of 29 November 2021 and stage a V-shaped rebound, rallying into year-end 2021.
- Made on
- 2021-11-29
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-12-31
Both legs must hold: (a) the S&P 500's lowest closing level over 2021-11-29 to 2021-12-31 occurs during the week of 2021-11-29 to 2021-12-03, and (b) the index's 2021-12-31 close is at least 3% above that low (a V-shaped rebound into year-end).
Outcome evidence only; no outcome value assigned. Both legs of the written criterion are satisfied on official closing levels: (a) the window's lowest close, 4,513.04, occurred on 2021-12-01, inside the specified week of 2021-11-29 to 2021-12-03; (b) the 2021-12-31 close of 4,766.18 is +5.61% above that low, clearing the 3% bar. Transparency caveat worth carrying forward: the path was not a single clean V. After the 12-01 trough the index recovered to 4,712.02 by 12-10, dipped again to 4,568.02 on 12-20 (a secondary trough just 1.22% above the first), then rallied hard into year-end. A stricter 'no material retest' reading of 'V-shaped' would be arguable, but the criterion as written is mechanical and both legs hold. Independent corroboration: Interactive Brokers weekly bars for CBOE SPX put the week of 2021-11-29 at a low of 4,495.12 versus 4,531.10 for the week of 2021-12-20, confirming the window's trough sat in the specified week; weekly closes 4,538.43 (week of 11-29) and 4,766.18 (week of 12-27) match the daily series exactly. No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
Fundstrat's Tom Lee, among the first to call the market's 2020 rebound, says he would be an aggressive buyer here
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
Leg (a) — S&P 500 daily closes from 2021-11-29 to 2021-12-31: 4,655.27 (11-29), 4,567.00 (11-30), 4,513.04 (12-01), 4,577.10 (12-02), 4,538.43 (12-03), then 4,591.67, 4,686.75, 4,701.21, 4,667.45, 4,712.02, 4,668.97, 4,634.09, 4,709.85, 4,668.67, 4,620.64, 4,568.02 (12-20), 4,649.23, 4,696.56, 4,725.79, 4,791.19, 4,786.35, 4,793.06, 4,778.73, 4,766.18 (12-31). The lowest close of the whole window is 4,513.04 on 2021-12-01, which falls inside the week of 2021-11-29 to 2021-12-03. The lowest close outside that week was 4,568.02 on 2021-12-20, 1.22% above the 12-01 trough.
Leg (b) — the 2021-12-31 close of 4,766.18 is 5.61% above the 2021-12-01 window low close of 4,513.04, exceeding the 3% rebound threshold written into the criterion. The index also set its highest close of 2021 (4,793.06) on 2021-12-29 during that rally, i.e. the recovery ran into year-end rather than fading.
Wikipedia's S&P 500 annual performance table shows the index finished 2021 up 26.89% for the year, consistent with a 4,766.18 year-end close reached after the early-December trough rather than a year that ended near its December lows.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US stocks bottom during the week of 29 November 2021 and st…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-11-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources