Full record
Hitsociety10-15 US states with the lowest vaccination rates see another parabolic rise in COVID-19 cases within the next few weeks.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitsociety“Our central case is now that 10-15 states (those with lowest vaccination rates) will see another parabolic rise in cases in the next few weeks.”
10-15 US states with the lowest vaccination rates see another parabolic rise in COVID-19 cases within the next few weeks.
- Made on
- 2021-07-02
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-07-27
At least 10 of the 15 US states with the lowest share of population fully vaccinated as of 2021-07-02 show a parabolic (accelerating) rise in COVID-19 cases by 2021-10-02, operationalized as the state's 7-day average of new confirmed cases reaching at least 3x its 2021-07-02 level at some point in the window, per CDC or state health-department data.
Criterion required at least 10 of the 15 lowest-vaccination states to reach 3x their 2021-07-02 7-day average by 2021-10-02. Two independent sources give 15 of 15 (daily, state-health-department-compiled) and 14 of 15 (CDC weekly). The result is robust: the only disagreement is Missouri (3.1x daily vs 2.5x weekly, a marginal case whose July 2 baseline was already elevated because its delta wave started earlier), and 12 states exceeded 9x on both bases, so the >=10 threshold holds under either source and either granularity. State ranking used CDC's official vaccination series on the exact 2021-07-02 as-of date, restricted to the 50 states (territories, DC and federal entities such as BOP/VA/IHS excluded). resolved_on set to 2021-07-27, the date the 10-of-15 threshold was first met on the daily series; note this specific date is source-sensitive at the day level, while the full-window outcome is not. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Delta Variant Likely Gives Market Transitory Panic, YE Target Increased to 4,600
Fundstrat Direct ·
Evidence of what happened
CDC official vaccination data (series_complete_pop_pct) as of 2021-07-02 for all 50 states. The 15 lowest: Mississippi 29.8%, Alabama 32.7%, Arkansas 34.4%, Wyoming 34.6%, Louisiana 35.1%, Tennessee 35.5%, Idaho 36.2%, Georgia 36.7%, West Virginia 37.4%, Utah 37.5%, Oklahoma 38.6%, South Carolina 38.9%, North Dakota 39.0%, Missouri 39.2%, Indiana 40.1%. This fixes the record's state set on the exact as-of date the criterion specifies.
Daily state case series compiled from state and local health departments: 15 of 15 of those states reached at least 3x their 2021-07-02 7-day-average level within the 2021-07-02 to 2021-10-02 window. Peak multiples: Tennessee 87.3x, North Dakota 50.9x, West Virginia 39.8x, South Carolina 34.7x, Alabama 28.4x, Georgia 23.7x, Idaho 20.4x, Mississippi 18.6x, Indiana 18.0x, Oklahoma 15.2x, Louisiana 13.4x, Wyoming 9.4x, Utah 5.3x, Arkansas 4.9x, Missouri 3.1x.
Independent cross-check on CDC's own weekly state case dataset (baseline week ending on/before 2021-07-07 vs peak week through 2021-10-05): 14 of 15 states reached at least 3x. Multiples: North Dakota 57.2x, West Virginia 45.6x, South Carolina 26.7x, Tennessee 25.0x, Georgia 21.8x, Alabama 20.1x, Mississippi 17.0x, Idaho 15.7x, Indiana 13.7x, Oklahoma 10.7x, Louisiana 9.1x, Wyoming 7.9x, Utah 4.6x, Arkansas 4.3x, Missouri 2.5x (the only state below 3x on the weekly basis).
Timing detail supporting the claim's 'within the next few weeks' language: 12 of the 15 states crossed 3x during July 2021 itself (earliest Tennessee 2021-07-12), and the 10th state crossed on 2021-07-27, i.e. about 3.5 weeks after the statement date. The three later crossings were Missouri 2021-08-05, Wyoming 2021-08-09 and Utah 2021-08-30.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
10-15 US states with the lowest vaccination rates see anoth…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-07-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources