The S&P 500 reaches 4,600 by 2021-12-31.

A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on 2021-06-30.

OtherQuote from the original sourcemarkets

Scored prediction

Hitmarkets

“Raising S&P 500 YE Target to 4,600 (2H +9%) but July likely "choppy" month”

The S&P 500 reaches 4,600 by 2021-12-31.

Made on: 2021-06-30
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5
Effect on score: +2.86

What counted as right

Status: resolved
Settled on: 2021-10-29

The S&P 500 closes at or above 4,600 on at least one session on or before 2021-12-31 (official index closing levels).

Threshold cleared with both time and price margin. Scanned the complete daily closing series from 2021-06-01 through 2022-01-31 for the first close >= 4,600; 2021-10-29 (4605.38) is the earliest. resolved_on set to the date the criterion was first satisfied, consistent with a claim that became true before its deadline. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.

Sources

Raising S&P 500 YE Target to 4,600 (2H +9%) but July likely 'choppy' month
Fundstrat Direct · 2021-06-30
Source
Tom Lee hikes his S&P price target to 4,600
CNBC Television (YouTube) · 2021-06-30
Source
Fundstrat's Tom Lee hikes his S&P price target to 4,600
CNBC · 2021-06-30
Source
Tom Lee raises 2021 forecast for the S&P 500, but warns of a tumultuous July
CNBC · 2021-06-30
Source
Delta Variant Likely Gives Market Transitory Panic, YE Target Increased to 4,600
Fundstrat Direct · 2021-07-02
Source

Evidence of what happened

First S&P 500 session closing at or above 4,600 was 2021-10-29 at 4605.38, roughly two months before the 2021-12-31 deadline. This satisfies the criterion (at least one close >= 4,600 on or before 2021-12-31).
Evidence
The index closed 2021 at 4766.18 on 2021-12-31 and set its 2021 maximum close of 4793.06 on 2021-12-29, so it was well above 4,600 sustainably through year end, not on a single fleeting session.
Evidence
S&P Dow Jones Indices, official index owner for S&P 500 closing levels.
Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+2.86

How sure they sounded: 85%
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

The S&P 500 reaches 4,600 by 2021-12-31.

Methodology version: v1.0.0
Last computed: August 5, 2026
Made on: 2021-06-30

How this profile was built

Scored by independent judges 2026-08-03
Predictions gathered and sourced 2026-08-01
Independently verified against sources 2026-08-03

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