Full record
MissmarketsJuly 2021 is a weak, choppy month for the S&P 500.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“we would default to expecting July to be somewhat choppy”
July 2021 is a weak, choppy month for the S&P 500.
- Made on
- 2021-06-30
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-07-31
July 2021 is weak or choppy for the S&P 500, operationalized as either (a) a negative price return for the calendar month (2021-07-31 close below the 2021-06-30 close) or (b) an intramonth peak-to-trough decline of at least 5% measured on closing levels during July 2021.
Both operationalized legs fail. The month was modestly positive (+2.28%) and the deepest closing drawdown inside July was under 3%, versus the 5% bar. Conclusion is insensitive to the closing-vs-intraday choice: even the 2021-07-19 intraday low (~4233) sits only about 3.5% below the 2021-07-12 close, still short of 5%. Criterion explicitly specifies closing levels, which is what was used. Data pulled from FRED series SP500 (S&P Dow Jones Indices); the full June 2021-January 2022 daily series was fetched twice independently and reproduced identical figures. resolved_on set to the stated deadline 2021-07-31; the operative final session was 2021-07-30. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Tom Lee raises 2021 forecast for the S&P 500, but warns of a tumultuous July
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 official closing levels: 4297.50 on 2021-06-30 vs 4395.26 on 2021-07-30 (the last trading session of July 2021; July 31 was a Saturday). Calendar-month price return +2.28%, i.e. POSITIVE, so leg (a) of the criterion (July close below the 2021-06-30 close) is NOT met.
Largest ordered peak-to-trough decline on closing levels during July 2021 was -2.88% (4384.63 on 2021-07-12 down to 4258.49 on 2021-07-19). July's highest close was 4422.30 (2021-07-26) and lowest close 4258.49 (2021-07-19); the low preceded the high, so no larger ordered drawdown exists. Leg (b) (>=5% intramonth closing decline) is NOT met.
S&P Dow Jones Indices, the index owner and official source for S&P 500 closing levels that FRED redistributes.
Corrections
- Quote wording: 'Brutal' cannot be sourced to Lee; CNBC's own headline says 'tumultuous' and Lee's documented first-person direct quotes are 'market payback' / 'we would default to expecting July to be somewhat choppy'. Replace the laundered paraphrase with Lee's confirmed direct quote to keep the verbatim authentic.
- certainty verbatim marker: Realign the certainty marker with the corrected verbatim; the hedged-advocacy register is preserved.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
July 2021 is a weak, choppy month for the S&P 500.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-06-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources