Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin and crypto prices are stable to rising through the Memorial Day 2021 weekend.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“We expect stable/rising prices.”
Bitcoin and crypto prices are stable to rising through the Memorial Day 2021 weekend.
- Made on
- 2021-05-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-05-31
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is stable or higher across the Memorial Day weekend: its price at the end of 2021-05-31 (UTC) is no more than 2% below its 2021-05-28 close, with the broad crypto market (total crypto market capitalization) likewise no more than 2% below its 2021-05-28 level.
The endpoint test in the criterion is satisfied on both legs. Bitcoin ended 2021-05-31 UTC 4.48% above its 2021-05-28 close, comfortably inside the 'no more than 2% below' band, and the broad market moved the same direction: the cap-weighted CMC Crypto 200 was 7.05% above its 5/28 close at its next available print, and ETH, ADA and LTC were all up between 6% and 15% over the identical interval. Two disclosures a later stage should weigh. First, a substitution: I could not retrieve an authoritative historical TOTAL crypto market capitalization series within this session (CoinGecko's public API refused the 2021 range as beyond its free historical window, and web.archive.org was unreachable), so the broad-market clause is evidenced by the CMC Crypto 200 index plus the largest Coinbase-listed assets rather than by a literal total-market-cap figure. The direction is unambiguous and unanimous across every broad measure available, but it is a proxy, not the named metric. Second, a genuine tension with the plain-language claim of prices being 'stable to rising through the weekend': the weekend was not calm in the middle. Bitcoin fell as low as 33,333 on 2021-05-30, 6.58% below the 5/28 close, before recovering. The criterion as written is explicitly an endpoint test measured at the end of 2021-05-31 UTC, and on that test it passes; a continuous-stability reading would not. Both readings are recorded here deliberately. Separately, an initial automated read of the ^CMC200 series was off by one bar and appeared to show the broad market down 5.83%; decoding the raw timestamp and close arrays showed the 902.14 print belongs to 5/28, not 5/29, and the corrected alignment is what is reported above and is consistent with every other asset checked. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Unpopular opinion --> We expect stable/rising prices. Setup for Bitcoin and crypto is 'less bad' into the weekend = good.
Fundstrat Direct ·
Evidence of what happened
Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily UTC candles for 2021-05-26 to 2021-06-02. Closes: 5/26 39,293.23; 5/27 38,556.88; 5/28 35,680.47; 5/29 34,627.82; 5/30 35,669.44; 5/31 37,279.31. The 2021-05-31 UTC close of 37,279.31 is 4.48% ABOVE the 2021-05-28 close of 35,680.47, satisfying the 'no more than 2% below' endpoint test. Intra-weekend lows were 33,650.86 (5/29), 33,333.00 (5/30) and 34,183.00 (5/31), the deepest being 6.58% below the 5/28 close.
Broad-market cross-check from Coinbase daily UTC candles over the identical 2021-05-28 close to 2021-05-31 close interval, for the largest Coinbase-listed assets: ETH 2,413.81 to 2,707.12 (+12.15%), ADA 1.5141 to 1.7391 (+14.86%), LTC 177.41 to 188.05 (+6.00%). Every major asset checked rose over the weekend rather than falling.
CMC Crypto 200 index (^CMC200), a market-capitalization-weighted benchmark of the top 200 cryptocurrencies, used as the broad-market proxy. Raw bars decoded from the source arrays (timestamps 1622008800, 1622095200, 1622181600, 1622440800, 1622527200, 1622613600 at 08:00 Europe/Berlin; closes 1028.28, 1025.55, 902.14, null, 965.76, 1001.55) map to 5/26 1028.28, 5/27 1025.55, 5/28 902.14, 5/31 no print, 6/1 965.76, 6/2 1001.55. The index is weekday-only and had no print on Memorial Day 2021-05-31, so the first post-weekend print of 965.76 on 6/1 stands 7.05% ABOVE the 5/28 close of 902.14.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin and crypto prices are stable to rising through the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources