The S&P 500 reaches 4,300 by year-end 2021.

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2021-07-02

The S&P 500 closes at or above 4,300 on at least one session on or before 2021-12-31. Reaching the level at any point during 2021 counts (Lee framed it as a second-half event, so an earlier arrival is still a hit). The '~25% rally' framing is not tested separately because the base it is measured from is unstated.

Criterion is satisfied unambiguously and by a wide margin — the only question is the precise first-crossing date, which affects resolved_on but not the resolution. resolved_on is set to 2021-07-02, the earliest session close at or above 4,300 that I could verify directly from retrieved primary data (weekly close 4,352.34). The true first crossing was most likely one session earlier, on 1 July 2021: June 2021's full-month intraday high was 4,302.43 against a 4,297.50 month-end close, which rules out any June close at or above 4,300 and pins the crossing to the first or second trading day of July. I deliberately did not assert the 1 July daily close, because daily-resolution data for that week could not be retrieved this session (FRED fredgraph.csv timed out repeatedly, Yahoo's chart API returned HTTP 429, and Stooq served a JavaScript bot-detection challenge which was not bypassed; the WebSearch budget was exhausted before any search ran). If the verify stage wants the exact date, a single daily-bar lookup for 2021-06-28 through 2021-07-02 will settle it. Note also that Lee framed 4,300 as a second-half-2021 event and it was reached right at the start of H2, so the timing sub-framing was accurate too; the criterion explicitly does not test the '~25% rally' framing separately. Same provenance caveat as the other S&P records: values came from the CBOE index feed via the Interactive Brokers market-data API, and the cited URLs are canonical index references rather than the authenticated retrieval endpoint.

Sources

• 2021 Strategy Outlook: Exiting 'Greater Depression' = cycle reversion

  Fundstrat Global Advisors · 2020-12-16

  Source

• COVID-19 UPDATE: 2021 Year Ahead -> "Pause that refreshes" leads to ~25% rally

  Fundstrat Direct · 2020-12-17

  Source

• Full interview with Funstrat's Tom Lee, who expects the S&P 500 to hit 4,300 in the second half of 2021

  CNBC · 2020-12-17

  Source

• Tom Lee sees a 10% correction coming but says 2021 will still be a boom year

  CNBC · 2020-12-17

  Source

• Tom Lee: Robust 2021 Market Despite 10% Correction

  Newsmax · 2020-12-17

  Source

• 2021 S&P Forecast: 16% Gains As Pent-up Demand Drives Recovery, Tom Lee says

  Business Insider · 2020-12-18

  Source

• Fundstrat's Tom Lee says these epicenter stocks will see massive relief and lead the market in 2021

  CNBC · 2020-12-22

  Source

• As Wild Year Ends, We See 15% SPX Gain Yearend 2021, to 4300

  Fundstrat Direct · 2020-12-31

  Source