The S&P 500 stalls and peaks between February and April 2021, then corrects about 10%, to roughly 3,500, before rising into year-end 2021.

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2021-06-30

Both legs must hold: (a) the S&P 500's closing high for the first half of 2021 falls between 2021-02-01 and 2021-04-30 (late January allowed, per the 2021-01-08 restatement that put the peak near 4,000); and (b) from that high the index falls at least 10% peak-to-trough, toward roughly 3,500, on or before 2021-06-30. The index making successive new highs through the window without a decline of at least 10% resolves FALSE; a shallower dip (under 10%) is a partial miss on amplitude.

Both required legs fail independently, so the record is resolved regardless of how the peak-window ambiguity is read. The actual H1 2021 path is precisely the scenario the criterion names as resolving FALSE: 'The index making successive new highs through the window without a decline of at least 10%.' The index set its H1 high on the final day of the half and its worst drawdown (-4.23% closing / -5.75% intraday) was less than half the required 10%. This is not merely a shallow-dip amplitude miss — the timing leg fails too, since the H1 peak fell in late June rather than February-April. Data are official daily closes from the St. Louis Fed (FRED series SP500) cross-checked against Yahoo Finance ^GSPC OHLC for the intraday figures; the two agree on all closing values. No conflicting evidence found. Note for the later stage: no outcome value assigned here.

Sources

• 2021 Strategy Outlook: Exiting 'Greater Depression' = cycle reversion

  Fundstrat Global Advisors · 2020-12-16

  Source

• Tom Lee sees a 10% correction coming but says 2021 will still be a boom year

  CNBC · 2020-12-17

  Source

• Tom Lee on bitcoin: It looks like bitcoin will be up 300% this year... but it could be down 40-50%

  Yahoo Finance (YouTube) · 2021-01-08

  Source