Full record
HiteconomyUS real interest rates run at about -6.0% in 2021-2022, the lowest in more than 60 years.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“Real interest rates -6.0% in 2021-2022, the lowest in more than 60 years.”
US real interest rates run at about -6.0% in 2021-2022, the lowest in more than 60 years.
- Made on
- 2020-12-16
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
A standard US real-rate measure — a short nominal rate (fed funds or 3-month T-bill) or the 10-year Treasury yield, minus year-over-year headline CPI inflation — reaches approximately -6.0% (within about 1 percentage point) at some point during 2021-2022, and that reading is the most negative since roughly 1960. Both the level and the 60-year superlative must hold for a full hit.
Both legs hold, so this is a full hit on the criterion as written. Two caveats worth carrying forward, neither of which changes the resolution. (1) DIRECTIONAL OVERSHOOT: on the short-rate measures the trough went to about -8.1% to -8.3%, materially MORE negative than the '-6.0%' Lee named — outside the criterion's stated ±1pp band at the extreme. The criterion is written as a threshold that must be 'reached' ('reaches approximately -6.0%'), and each series does pass through the -6.0% band en route, so it is satisfied; a stricter reading that demanded the trough itself land within ±1pp of -6.0% would be satisfied only by the 10-year measure (-6.41% trough), not the short-rate measures. The 10-year measure is the one that matches -6.0% almost exactly. (2) SUPERLATIVE FRAMING: the claim as canonicalized says 'lowest in more than 60 years,' which holds (74 years, since July 1948). A stronger paraphrase such as 'lowest ever' or 'lowest on record' would FAIL, since 1946-47 was far more negative at about -19%. The record's wording and criterion both use the 60-year framing, so this does not bite. All figures computed from official Federal Reserve / BLS series via FRED; YoY CPI reproduces BLS published headline rates exactly. No conflicting credible evidence found. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
2021 Strategy Outlook: Exiting 'Greater Depression' = cycle reversion
Fundstrat Global Advisors ·
Evidence of what happened
LEVEL leg HOLDS on all three standard measures. Monthly US real rates (nominal minus year-over-year headline CPI) reached their most negative readings in March 2022: 3-month T-bill minus CPI = -8.10%; effective fed funds minus CPI = -8.34%; 10-year Treasury minus CPI = -6.41%. Every one of the three series passed through approximately -6.0% on its way (3m T-bill: -6.17% Oct 2021, -6.98% Dec 2021, -6.29% Jul 2022; fed funds: -6.14% Oct 2021, -6.96% Dec 2021, -6.84% Jul 2022). Computed from FRED series CPIAUCNS (CPI, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted), TB3MS (3-month T-bill secondary market rate, monthly), FEDFUNDS (effective federal funds rate) and GS10 (10-year Treasury constant maturity).
The 10-year measure tracks Lee's '-6.0%' almost exactly. The 10-year Treasury yield minus YoY headline CPI printed -5.72% (Jan 2022), -5.94% (Feb 2022), -6.41% (Mar 2022), -5.51% (Apr 2022), -5.68% (May 2022) and -5.92% (Jun 2022) — i.e. it sat essentially at -6.0% across the whole first half of 2022, dead centre of the criterion's '-6.0% within about 1 percentage point' band. Derived YoY CPI matches BLS as published: 8.5% for March 2022 and 9.1% for June 2022.
SUPERLATIVE leg HOLDS, and robustly. Ranking every month in the FRED history, March 2022's -8.10% (3-month T-bill minus CPI) was the most negative reading since July 1948 — a gap of 74 years, comfortably satisfying 'lowest in more than 60 years.' Within the post-1960 era there is no month more negative: zero months from 1960 through 2020 beat it on any of the three measures. The prior post-1960 record was June 1980 at -7.31% (the credit-controls episode, when the Fed cut sharply while CPI was still above 14%); the 1973-76 oil-shock trough was only -5.73% (Feb 1975) and the 1969-71 trough just -1.33%.
Nearest historical rivals, for completeness. The Korean War inflation peak came closest without exceeding it: February 1951 at -8.00%, just 0.10pp less negative than March 2022. Readings genuinely more negative than March 2022 occur only in the WWII and immediate post-war periods — 1941-42 (trough -12.82%, May 1942) and 1946-48 (trough -19.29%, March 1947, when CPI ran 19.7% against a pegged T-bill). All of these are 74+ years before 2022 and fall outside the criterion's 'since roughly 1960' window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US real interest rates run at about -6.0% in 2021-2022, the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources