Full record
75% rightmarketsThe S&P 500 closes 2020 at 3,800.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
75% rightmarkets“With tailwinds for P/E expansion, we see 2021 P/E rising to 19.7X from 18.3X, which would lead to S & P 500 3,800 (based on EPS of $193),”
The S&P 500 closes 2020 at 3,800.
- Made on
- 2020-11-19
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.98
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-12-31
The S&P 500's 31 December 2020 close is at or above 3,800 (the stated year-end target level).
Criterion is a single-date test on the 31 Dec 2020 close and it is unambiguous: 3,756.07 vs a 3,800 threshold — a shortfall of 43.93 points. No conflicting evidence exists; 3,756.07 is the universally reported 2020 year-end close (it was itself a record closing high for 2020, which is why the miss is narrow rather than directional). Provenance caveat for the verify stage: the numeric index values were pulled from the CBOE index feed via the Interactive Brokers market-data API on 2026-08-02; the cited URLs are the canonical index references (S&P Dow Jones Indices and Cboe SPX dashboard), not the exact retrieval endpoint, which is an authenticated API with no citable URL. Public archival endpoints were attempted and failed this session (FRED fredgraph.csv timed out repeatedly, Stooq served a bot-detection challenge which was not bypassed, Yahoo chart API returned HTTP 429), and the session's WebSearch budget was exhausted before any search ran. Recommend re-confirming 3,756.07 against a public archival source at publication time; the value is not in doubt, only its citable URL.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500's official close on 31 December 2020 was 3,756.07 — 43.93 points (1.16%) below the 3,800 year-end target. Taken from the December 2020 monthly bar of the Cboe-disseminated S&P 500 index series (close 3,756.07; intraday high 3,760.20; low 3,633.40), contract 416904 'S&P 500 Stock Index', exchange CBOE, retrieved 2026-08-02.
Weekly series for the final week of 2020 (week beginning 28 December 2020) independently confirms the same figure: weekly close 3,756.07 with a weekly intraday high of 3,760.20. The index never traded at 3,800 in December 2020, so it could not have closed there.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.98- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 closes 2020 at 3,800.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-11-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources