Full record

Hitmarkets

The S&P 500 reaches 3,525 by the end of 2020.

A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .

OtherQuote from the original sourcemarkets

Scored prediction

Hitmarkets

Raising S&P 500 Target to 3,525 (+75 vs prior), reflects epicenter rally to add +150 points upside

The S&P 500 reaches 3,525 by the end of 2020.

Made on
2020-08-14
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Effect on score
+2.86

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2020-12-31

The S&P 500's 31 December 2020 close is at or above 3,525 (the stated year-end target level).

Criterion satisfied cleanly. The criterion specifies the 31 December 2020 close measured against the 3,525 target; that close was 3,756.07, exceeding the target by 6.6%. The margin is wide enough that no data-vendor convention could change the result, and the index traded above 3,525 continuously through the closing weeks of 2020, so the outcome does not depend on the single year-end print. The exact value is confirmed by two independent sources: the market-data series and FactSet's 8 Jan 2021 Earnings Insight, which quotes 3756.07 in its own text. 31 December 2020 was a regular trading day and the final session of the calendar year, so it is unambiguously the date the criterion designates. No conflicting evidence found.

Sources

  • COVID-19 UPDATE: Raising S&P 500 Target to 3,525 (+75 vs prior), reflects epicenter rally to add +150 points upside

    Fundstrat Direct ·

    Source

  • COVID-19 daily cases still down, raising YE target

    Fundstrat Global Advisors (fundstratdirect.com) ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • The S&P 500 closed at 3,756.07 on 31 December 2020, above the 3,525 target level by 231.07 points (6.6%). Adjacent closes: 3,703.06 (24 Dec), 3,735.36 (28 Dec), 3,727.04 (29 Dec), 3,732.04 (30 Dec), 3,756.07 (31 Dec).

    Evidence

  • Independent corroboration of the exact year-end close from FactSet Earnings Insight, 8 January 2021: "From September 30 through December 31, the value of the index increased by 11.7% (to 3756.07 from 3363.00)." This confirms the 3,756.07 figure from a source unrelated to the market-data feed.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+2.86
How sure they sounded
85%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

The S&P 500 reaches 3,525 by the end of 2020.
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 5, 2026
Made on
2020-08-14

How this profile was built

  1. Scored by independent judges

  2. Predictions gathered and sourced

  3. Independently verified against sources

Every public score traces back to sourced prediction records.

Avow is an independent project. The pundits scored here are not affiliated with Avow and do not endorse it. Names and likenesses are used for identification and commentary.

Evidence firstMethodologyPrivacy