Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 reaches 3,525 by the end of 2020.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Raising S&P 500 Target to 3,525 (+75 vs prior), reflects epicenter rally to add +150 points upside”
The S&P 500 reaches 3,525 by the end of 2020.
- Made on
- 2020-08-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-12-31
The S&P 500's 31 December 2020 close is at or above 3,525 (the stated year-end target level).
Criterion satisfied cleanly. The criterion specifies the 31 December 2020 close measured against the 3,525 target; that close was 3,756.07, exceeding the target by 6.6%. The margin is wide enough that no data-vendor convention could change the result, and the index traded above 3,525 continuously through the closing weeks of 2020, so the outcome does not depend on the single year-end print. The exact value is confirmed by two independent sources: the market-data series and FactSet's 8 Jan 2021 Earnings Insight, which quotes 3756.07 in its own text. 31 December 2020 was a regular trading day and the final session of the calendar year, so it is unambiguously the date the criterion designates. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500 closed at 3,756.07 on 31 December 2020, above the 3,525 target level by 231.07 points (6.6%). Adjacent closes: 3,703.06 (24 Dec), 3,735.36 (28 Dec), 3,727.04 (29 Dec), 3,732.04 (30 Dec), 3,756.07 (31 Dec).
Independent corroboration of the exact year-end close from FactSet Earnings Insight, 8 January 2021: "From September 30 through December 31, the value of the index increased by 11.7% (to 3756.07 from 3363.00)." This confirms the 3,756.07 figure from a source unrelated to the market-data feed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 reaches 3,525 by the end of 2020.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-08-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources