Technology and Healthcare lead the US equity market over the next few months.

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2020-06-10

Both the S&P 500 Information Technology and Health Care sectors post a higher total return than the S&P 500 index between 2020-03-10 and 2020-06-10 ('few months' taken as three months from the utterance).

The criterion requires BOTH sectors to beat the index; the two legs split. Technology beat the S&P 500 by a wide margin (+19.09% vs +10.68%). Health Care did not (+7.79% vs +10.68%). Because the criterion is conjunctive ('Both ... post a higher total return than the S&P 500 index'), the conjunction fails on the Health Care leg. The result is robust to the price-return versus total-return distinction: the criterion asks for total return, and the dividend-adjusted ETF proxies (XLV +8.31% vs SPY +11.25%) give the same 2.9 percentage-point shortfall as the price indices, so Health Care's underperformance holds under either measurement. Health Care's shortfall of ~2.9pp is a clear miss rather than a within-noise result, though it is far smaller in magnitude than Technology's ~8.4pp outperformance — a scorer may wish to note the split rather than treating it as a uniform miss. Window interpretation follows the criterion as written ('few months' taken as three months from the utterance, 2020-03-10 to 2020-06-10); both endpoints were regular trading days, so no date-rolling was needed. No conflicting evidence found.

Sources

• The 8% sell-off was not about 'price discovery' but rather 'get me out of everything' and now priced 100% probability of a recession

  Fundstrat Direct · 2020-03-10

  Source