Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 falls 5% to 7% within the next few weeks, to roughly 3,195 (50-day moving average) and probably 3,095 (100-day moving average).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“We think more weakness likely in the next few weeks towards the 50D and probably 100D moving average, which is 3,195 and 3,095, respectively (5% to 7%).”
The S&P 500 falls 5% to 7% within the next few weeks, to roughly 3,195 (50-day moving average) and probably 3,095 (100-day moving average).
- Made on
- 2020-01-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-02-25
The S&P 500 closes at or below 3,195 (the cited 50-day moving average, about a 5% decline) at any point on or before 2020-04-27. The 'probably' extension to 3,095 (about 7%) is the stronger leg and is not required for a hit.
Criterion is on a CLOSING basis and requires only the 3,195 leg; FRED's SP500 series is closing values, so it maps directly. Threshold was met 2020-02-25, 29 days (about four weeks) after the 2020-01-27 statement, consistent with the 'next few weeks' framing and comfortably inside the 2020-04-27 deadline. The optional stronger 3,095 leg was met two sessions later on 2020-02-27. No conflicting evidence; the index data is uncontested. Note for context only (not part of the criterion): the decline was driven by the COVID-19 selloff and ran far past both cited levels, bottoming at 2,237.40 on 2020-03-23.
Sources
Enough excuses for S&P 500 to correct 5-7% to 50D or 100D mavg, but TINA put still in effect
Fundstrat Global Advisors (fundstratdirect.com) ·
Still see correction towards 3,100-3,150 (by a NARROWING margin), as high-yield and VIX term structure remain stubbornly cautious
Fundstrat Direct ·
Coronavirus Hit Not As Bad As Feared; Closing Correction Call
Fundstrat Direct ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 daily closing values (S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED): the index closed at 3,128.21 on 2020-02-25, the first close at or below the 3,195 threshold inside the window opened by the 2020-01-27 statement. The prior session (2020-02-24) closed at 3,225.89, still above the level, so 2020-02-25 is the first qualifying close.
The stronger 'probably 3,095' leg also cleared within the window: the S&P 500 closed at 2,978.76 on 2020-02-27, below the cited 100-day moving average level. Surrounding closes: 2020-02-21 3,337.75; 02-24 3,225.89; 02-25 3,128.21; 02-26 3,116.39; 02-27 2,978.76; 02-28 2,954.22.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 falls 5% to 7% within the next few weeks, to ro…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-01-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources