Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 ends 2020 above 3,450 (stocks gain 10% or more).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“S&P 500 > 3,450 and maybe 3,500-3,600”
The S&P 500 ends 2020 above 3,450 (stocks gain 10% or more).
- Made on
- 2019-12-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-12-31
The S&P 500's 31 December 2020 close is above 3,450 (the stated year-end target level). Resolved on the year-end close, since the number was published as a year-end target.
Criterion threshold: 31 Dec 2020 close above 3,450. Actual close 3,756.07 - above the threshold by 306.07 points (8.9%). The claim's parenthetical second leg ("stocks gain 10% or more") is also satisfied and does not conflict with the primary leg: the 2020 price gain was 16.26% and the total return 18.40%, both above 10%, so there is no internal tension between the two parts of the claim. Path note for context only: the criterion resolves on the year-end close as written, so the March 2020 crash and recovery do not bear on resolution. No conflicting evidence found; index closes are not revised. No outcome value assigned - that is a later stage.
Sources
2020 thoughts: EPS +10%, P/E flat to even upside = S&P 500 3,450 and maybe 3,500-3,600
Fundstrat Global Advisors (fundstratdirect.com) ·
2020 thoughts -> EPS +10% + P/E flat (even upside) = S&P 500 > 3,450 and maybe 3,500-3,600
Fundstrat Direct ·
In 2020 It's All About SPX's EPS Growth; We See a 10% Rise
Fundstrat Direct ·
Still see correction towards 3,100-3,150 (by a NARROWING margin)...
Fundstrat Direct ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 closing-milestones record: "The index reached a new record high of 3,756.07 by the end of the year" for 2020. This is the 31 December 2020 close the criterion names, 306.07 points (8.9%) above the 3,450 target level.
S&P 500 annual returns table: 2020 price-only change +16.26%. Applied to the 31 Dec 2019 close of 3,230.78 this reproduces 3,756.1, an independent arithmetic cross-check confirming the 3,756.07 year-end 2020 close.
Same-day market wrap reporting that the S&P 500 rose 0.64% to 3,756.07 on 31 December 2020, its 33rd record close of the year. Corroborating contemporaneous report - direct fetch of this page returned HTTP 403, so the figure was read from the search-result summary rather than the full page, and it is treated as secondary support behind the two verified sources above.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 ends 2020 above 3,450 (stocks gain 10% or more).- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-12-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources