Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 ends 2019 at or above about 3,185, raised from his prior 3,125 target.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Raising S&P 500 Target to 3,185 (+60).”
The S&P 500 ends 2019 at or above about 3,185, raised from his prior 3,125 target.
- Made on
- 2019-11-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-12-31
The S&P 500 index closes 2019 (final close of the year) at or above 3,185.
Criterion threshold 3,185; actual final 2019 close 3,230.78, i.e. 45.78 points (+1.44%) above the threshold. The close also cleared his superseded 3,125 target. No conflicting evidence found: two independent same-day sources and an arithmetic cross-check from the published 2019 price return all give 3,230.78. Index closing levels are not revised, so there is no vintage/revision risk on this record. resolved_on is the criterion's own measurement date (final close of 2019), which was publicly known that same day. No outcome value assigned - that is a later stage.
Sources
Raising S&P 500 YE target to 3185 (+60) due Santa Claus rally, ISM inflection, positioning. Don't sell this rally
Fundstrat Global Advisors (fundstratdirect.com) ·
2020 Outlook: Demographics Helping the US De Couple from the Rest of the World | Thomas Lee
MoneyShow (YouTube) ·
Upside dry powder for S&P 500 as evidence mounting 2020 economy > 2019 economy
Fundstrat Global Advisors (fundstratdirect.com) ·
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: 2019 the start of new global equity bull market
CNBC Television (YouTube) ·
Market over-reaction to weak US PMIs, we expect market to bounce hard
Fundstrat Global Advisors (fundstratdirect.com) ·
Reminder: as S&P 500 nears all-time high, markets that go nowhere for 20 months historically resolve with upside breakout
Fundstrat Global Advisors (fundstratdirect.com) ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 final close of 2019 was 3,230.78 on 31 December 2019 (open 3,215.18, day range 3,212.03-3,231.72). This is the exact quantity the criterion names: the final close of the year.
AP wire copy on the last trading day of 2019: "The S&P 500 rose 9.49 points, or 0.3%, to 3,230.78" and "The S&P 500 finished with a gain of 28.9% for the year." Independent same-day confirmation of the 3,230.78 year-end close.
S&P 500 annual returns table: 2019 price-only change +28.88%. Applied to the 2018 year-end close of 2,506.85 this reproduces a 2019 year-end level of ~3,230.8, an independent arithmetic cross-check on the 3,230.78 figure.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 ends 2019 at or above about 3,185, raised from…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-11-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources