Full record
MisseconomyThe 2020 US economy is stronger than the 2019 economy.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“2020 ECONOMY > 2019 ECONOMY = RISK-ON”
The 2020 US economy is stronger than the 2019 economy.
- Made on
- 2019-11-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-12-31
US real GDP growth for calendar 2020 (BEA annual figure) exceeds calendar-2019 growth. Secondary check: the 2020 average ISM manufacturing PMI exceeds the 2019 average. The GDP comparison governs; the PMI check is corroborating.
THE TWO CHECKS SPLIT, and the record's own criterion pre-specifies the tiebreak, so the record still resolves. Governing metric (BEA annual real GDP): 2020 -3.5% versus 2019 +2.2% - 2020 was decisively weaker, not stronger. Corroborating metric (ISM manufacturing PMI annual average): 2020 52.5 versus 2019 51.2 - 2020 was modestly stronger. The PMI divergence has a clear mechanical cause and is not a data error: 2019 was a manufacturing slump that ended with five straight sub-50 readings (Aug-Dec), while 2020 paired a two-month collapse (Apr 41.5) with an unusually hot H2 rebound (Dec 60.7), so the annual average flatters 2020 even though annual output contracted. The criterion states "The GDP comparison governs; the PMI check is corroborating," so the split is resolved by the written criterion rather than by judgement, and no needs_human_review flag is warranted. Robustness across vintages: the cited -3.5%/+2.2% pair is the 2021 vintage; BEA's later comprehensive revisions changed the magnitudes (2019 revised up, 2020's contraction revised smaller) but never the sign - every BEA vintage has 2020 as a contraction and 2019 as an expansion, so no revision reverses the comparison. resolved_on is the end of the calendar-2020 measurement period; the determining statistic was published later (2021-01-28 advance, 2021-03-25 third estimate). No outcome value assigned - that is a later stage.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
BEA, GDP third estimate for Q4 and year 2020 (released 2021-03-25), states verbatim: "Real GDP decreased 3.5 percent in 2020 (from the 2019 annual level to the 2020 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2019." This is the primary BEA annual figure the criterion names, and it is decisive against the claim: 2020 growth was BELOW 2019 growth by about 5.7 percentage points.
BEA advance estimate for Q4 and year 2020 (released 2021-01-28) reported the same annual comparison (-3.5% for 2020 versus +2.2% for 2019), so the first official BEA annual figure and the third estimate agree.
SECONDARY CHECK, POINTS THE OTHER WAY. ISM December 2020 Manufacturing Report On Business gives "Average for 12 months - 52.5" for calendar 2020, with monthlies Jan 50.9, Feb 50.1, Mar 49.1, Apr 41.5, May 43.1, Jun 52.6, Jul 54.2, Aug 56.0, Sep 55.4, Oct 59.3, Nov 57.5, Dec 60.7.
ISM December 2019 Manufacturing Report On Business gives "Average for 12 months - 51.2" for calendar 2019, with monthlies Jan 56.6, Feb 54.2, Mar 55.3, Apr 52.8, May 52.1, Jun 51.7, Jul 51.2, Aug 49.1, Sep 47.8, Oct 48.3, Nov 48.1, Dec 47.2. So the 2020 average PMI (52.5) EXCEEDED the 2019 average (51.2) by 1.3 points - the corroborating check favours the claim even though the governing GDP check refutes it.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The 2020 US economy is stronger than the 2019 economy.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-11-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources