Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 reaches 4,500 by 31 December 2021.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“this implies S&P 500 4,500 by end of 2021”
The S&P 500 reaches 4,500 by 31 December 2021.
- Made on
- 2019-10-25
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-08-27
The S&P 500 closes at or above 4,500 at any point on or before 2021-12-31.
Satisfied on 2021-08-27, about four months before the 2021-12-31 deadline, and the index closed the year well above the threshold (4766.18 on 2021-12-31). Criterion specifies closing values and 'at any point on or before', both of which are met. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 daily closes from FRED (series SP500, licensed from S&P Dow Jones Indices). First close at or above 4,500 within the window: 2021-08-27 at 4509.37. The prior maximum close on or before 2021-08-26 was 4496.19 (2021-08-25), just short of the threshold. Subsequent closes held above: 2021-08-30 4528.79, 2021-08-31 4522.68, 2021-09-02 4536.95.
Same series, deadline check: the 2021-12-31 close was 4766.18 and the window maximum close was 4793.06 on 2021-12-29 - the index finished 2021 roughly 6% above the 4,500 threshold, so the target was cleared not just momentarily but durably.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 reaches 4,500 by 31 December 2021.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-10-25
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources