Full record
HitmarketsA second-half rally pushes the S&P 500 above 3,125 by 2019-12-31.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“A growing chorus of investors calling for 'correction' but our sense is investors cautiously positioned. - @Blackrock CEO Larry Fink says 'people underinvested in equities.' - We see 2H rally pushing S&P 500 above 3,125 @CNBC ARTICLE @MATT_BELVEDERE”
A second-half rally pushes the S&P 500 above 3,125 by 2019-12-31.
- Made on
- 2019-07-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-11-25
The S&P 500 closes above 3,125 at any point between 2019-07-19 and 2019-12-31.
Criterion ('closes above 3,125 at any point between 2019-07-19 and 2019-12-31') met on 2019-11-25 at 3,133.64, about five weeks before the deadline, and the second-half rally framing of the claim also matches what happened. The 2019-11-25 value is confirmed by two independent paths: the Yahoo daily series directly, and the Business Standard next-day wrap via its stated point change. The Wikipedia milestone value for 2019-11-15 (3,120.46) matches the Yahoo series to the cent, which validates the series. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
We see 2H rally pushing S&P 500 above 3,125
X (Twitter) — @fundstrat (Tom Lee) ·
FUNDSTRAT: '.. we expect stocks to rise strongly into YE and believe our current 3,125 target is low.'
X (Twitter) — @carlquintanilla (CNBC) ·
Forget EPS recession, Fed is key, 3125 target seems low
Fundstrat Global Advisors (fundstratdirect.com) ·
Tom Lee says one key indicator suggests a 10% rally for the S&P is coming
X (Twitter) — CNBC Halftime Report ·
New highs for bitcoin possible this year: Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC Television (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
Yahoo Finance historical daily data for the S&P 500 (^GSPC): the first close above 3,125 within the criterion window (2019-07-19 to 2019-12-31) was 2019-11-25 at 3,133.64. The approach: 2019-11-15 3,120.46; 11-18 3,122.03; 11-19 3,120.18; 11-20 3,108.46; 11-21 3,103.54; 11-22 3,110.29; then 11-25 3,133.64, 11-26 3,140.52, 11-27 3,153.63. The index never closed back below 3,125 for the rest of the year, ending 2019 at 3,230.78.
Business Standard market wrap for 2019-11-26 reports the S&P 500 closed at 3,140.52, up 6.88 points that session — arithmetically implying a 2019-11-25 close of exactly 3,133.64, independently corroborating the crossing date and value.
Wikipedia 'Closing milestones of the S&P 500': first close above 3,100 on 2019-11-15 at 3,120.46 and first close above 3,200 on 2019-12-19 at 3,205.37 — brackets the 3,125 crossing to late November 2019 and matches the Yahoo series value for 2019-11-15 exactly.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
A second-half rally pushes the S&P 500 above 3,125 by 2019-…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-07-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources