Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin rises over the weekend of 27-28 July 2019, breaking the recent pattern of weekend weakness.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“Weekend is starting in US, and past few weekends led to weakness in #bitcoin - Fed is expected to cut interest rates next week. - Lower rates = weaker USD = Upside for Bitcoin $BTC - So expect Bitcoin to break the pattern this weekend and actually rise this weekend. #BTFD”
Bitcoin rises over the weekend of 27-28 July 2019, breaking the recent pattern of weekend weakness.
- Made on
- 2019-07-27
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 1 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.28
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-07-28
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is higher at the close of Sunday 2019-07-28 (23:59 UTC) than at the time of the tweet on 2019-07-27.
Criterion is directly measurable and unambiguous once the tweet timestamp is pinned. Tweet at 2019-07-27T03:13:59Z with BTC ~$10,130-10,135 (Bitstamp 10134.94 / Coinbase 10128.90 at that hour's close); Sunday 2019-07-28 23:59 UTC price $9,533 (Bitstamp 9533.19 / Coinbase 9533.00). That is about -5.9%. Bitcoin was LOWER at the Sunday close than at the time of the tweet, so the written criterion was not met. The looser reading also fails: measured from the start of the weekend (2019-07-27 00:00 UTC open 9846.94) to the Sunday close it is -3.2%, i.e. the pattern of weekend weakness he expected to break in fact continued. The tweet's UTC date (2019-07-27) matches made_on; note it was 2019-07-26 23:13 US Eastern / 20:13 US Pacific, so any source rendering local US time will date it 2019-07-26 - this is a display-timezone artifact, not conflicting evidence. No conflicting credible evidence found. Two mutually independent exchanges agree. Timestamp evidence came from an archived timeline snapshot because the live tweet is behind Twitter/X's login wall; the 2022 Wayback capture of the permalink itself returns only a JS shell with no readable content.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Source tweet located and timestamped. Archived @fundstrat timeline capture (taken 2019-07-27T13:49:45Z) contains tweet id 1154953048562851840 with machine-readable data-time="1564197239" = 2019-07-27T03:13:59 UTC, rendered by Twitter as '20:13 - 2019/7/26' (US Pacific). Text: 'Weekend is starting in US, and past few weekends led to weakness in #bitcoin - Fed is expected to cut interest rates next week. - Lower rates = weaker USD = Upside for Bitcoin $BTC - So expect Bitcoin to break the pattern this weekend and actually rise this weekend. #BTFD'
Bitstamp public OHLC API (exchange primary data). Hourly candle 2019-07-27T03:00Z (the hour containing the tweet): open 10138.99, high 10155.00, low 10121.00, close 10134.94 -> BTC ~$10,135 at the time of the tweet. Hourly candle 2019-07-28T23:00Z (the hour ending at the Sunday 23:59 UTC cutoff): close 9533.19.
Independent cross-check on Coinbase Exchange API. Hourly candle 2019-07-27T03:00Z: open 10133.38, high 10144.91, low 10123.40, close 10128.90. Hourly candle 2019-07-28T23:00Z: open 9521.21, close 9533.00. Both exchanges agree within ~$6 at each anchor point.
Bitstamp daily (UTC) candles framing the whole weekend: 2019-07-26 close 9846.94; 2019-07-27 open 9846.94, high 10235.00, low 9299.00, close 9481.37; 2019-07-28 high 9634.50, low 9111.00, close 9533.19. The intraweekend break came at 2019-07-27T10:00Z, when BTC fell from ~10,050 to ~9,410 in one hour.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.28- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 1 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin rises over the weekend of 27-28 July 2019, breaking…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-07-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources