Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 ends 2019 at about 3,100, above Lee's prior 2,925 year-end target (an up-25% year).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Our year-end [S&P 500] target at 2,925 is too low and likely 3,100 looks more appropriate”
The S&P 500 ends 2019 at about 3,100, above Lee's prior 2,925 year-end target (an up-25% year).
- Made on
- 2019-04-26
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-12-31
The S&P 500 index closes 2019 (final close of the year) at or above 3,100.
Criterion ('closes 2019 at or above 3,100') met unambiguously: final 2019 close 3,230.78. The 3,230.78 figure is consistent across three independent sources (Yahoo daily series, CNBC market wrap, and the widely reported 28.88% annual price return). Note for the quantify stage: the criterion as written is a simple at-or-above-3,100 threshold, which is a weaker bar than the claim's headline 'about 3,100' point estimate — the actual close overshot the target by 4.2%. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Tom Lee: Our 2019 S&P 500 target is too low
Yahoo Finance ·
Tom Lee is more bullish on stocks for 2019
Yahoo Finance (YouTube) ·
Calling New Bull Market, Fundstrat's Lee Lifts S&P 500 Target
Bloomberg ·
Tom Lee predicts S&P 500 will gain additional 7% by end of the year
CNBC ·
Tom Lee: chop not top (Worldwide Exchange)
CNBC ·
Tom Lee: chop not top
CNBC Television (YouTube) ·
still tracking and suggest 3,100 by year end
X (Twitter) — @fundstrat (Tom Lee) ·
Tom Lee (Fundstrat): S&P 500 Year-End Target Track Record
AnaChart ·
Evidence of what happened
Yahoo Finance historical daily data for the S&P 500 (^GSPC): the final close of 2019, on 2019-12-31, was 3,230.78 — 130.78 points (4.2%) above the 3,100 criterion threshold. Surrounding closes: 2019-12-26 3,239.91; 2019-12-27 3,240.02 (the 2019 closing high); 2019-12-30 3,221.29.
CNBC market wrap for the final trading day of 2019: 'Stocks post best annual gain in 6 years with the S&P 500 surging more than 28%' — reports the S&P 500 closing 2019 at 3,230.78, up 28.9% on the year, its biggest one-year gain since 2013.
Wikipedia 'Closing milestones of the S&P 500' records the index first closing above 3,200 on 2019-12-19 at 3,205.37, establishing the index was already sustainably above the 3,100 threshold well before year end.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 ends 2019 at about 3,100, above Lee's prior 2,9…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-04-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources