Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin looks technically like it is back in a bull market within five to six months, that is by 2019-09-14.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“I think the outside window is five or six months before bitcoin starts to look technically like it's back in a bull market.”
Bitcoin looks technically like it is back in a bull market within five to six months, that is by 2019-09-14.
- Made on
- 2019-03-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-04-02
On at least one day on or before 2019-09-14, bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes at least 20 percent above its December 2018 cycle low of about $3,150, that is at or above roughly $3,780, and closes above its trailing 200-day simple moving average. Those two standard technical markers together operationalize 'looks technically like it's back in a bull market'.
Criterion MET, roughly 2.5 weeks after the claim and well inside the five-to-six-month horizon. resolved_on is set to 2019-04-02 rather than the 2019-09-14 deadline because the criterion is an at-least-once-on-or-before test that became irrevocably satisfied on that date. Nuance worth carrying forward to quantification, not adjudicated here: the two markers were not equally binding. On the claim date itself (2019-03-14) bitcoin closed $3,853.95 - already above the $3,780 marker - so the +20%-off-the-low condition was effectively pre-satisfied when Lee spoke; the 200-day SMA was the binding marker, and it was crossed on 2019-04-02. Conflicting-evidence note, logged per instruction: one contemporaneous secondary analysis (investing.com) asserted the 200-day moving average sat near $5,300 in early April 2019, which conflicts with the ~$4,620 figure computed directly from daily closes on two independent exchanges. Direct arithmetic on primary exchange data is preferred, and the conflict is immaterial to the resolution in any case - bitcoin first closed above $5,300 on 2019-04-10 and closed above that level on 142 of the 166 days through the deadline, so the record resolves the same way under the higher reading, only with a crossing date eight days later. The crossing was decisive rather than marginal (close ~6% above the SMA, and the window later ran to a $12,927 close), so the outcome is not sensitive to data-source or SMA-convention choice. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily closes, with the trailing 200-day simple moving average computed directly from those closes (200-day window fully populated for every evaluated day; source series runs 2018-02-01 to 2019-09-20 with no gaps): the FIRST day on which BOTH criterion markers held simultaneously was 2019-04-02 - close $4,901.93 versus a 200-day SMA of $4,619.93, i.e. 6.1% above the SMA and 56% above the $3,150 reference low (comfortably clear of the $3,780 marker). Both markers then held on 166 separate days through the 2019-09-14 deadline; the window peak close was $12,927.44 on 2019-06-26, and the deadline-day close was $10,360.25.
Independent cross-check on a second exchange - Bitstamp BTC/USD daily OHLC, same computation: first day meeting both markers is also 2019-04-02, close $4,899.63 versus a 200-day SMA of $4,619.27. The two venues agree on the crossing date and to within $0.66 on the SMA, so the crossing date is not a single-source artifact.
December 2018 cycle low confirmed against both venues, validating the criterion's reference point and derived threshold: intraday low $3,122.28 (Bitstamp, 2018-12-15) and $3,128.89 (Coinbase, 2018-12-15), lowest daily close $3,183.00 (Coinbase, 2018-12-15). The criterion's 'about $3,150' low and its 20%-above figure of 'roughly $3,780' both hold on the actual data.
Contemporaneous reporting of the same breakout: Benzinga, 2019-04, 'Bitcoin Surging Above $5,200', and an investing.com market analysis describing bitcoin spiking from just above $4,200 to $5,300 starting 2 April 2019 with total crypto capitalization up 18% and record daily BTC volumes of $23 billion on 4 April - narrative corroboration that the technical regime change was recognized in real time, not only in hindsight.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin looks technically like it is back in a bull market…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-03-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources