Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin's price crosses above its 200-day moving average by the end of August 2019, given it holds around $4,000.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“it'll cross above its 200-day by August”
Bitcoin's price crosses above its 200-day moving average by the end of August 2019, given it holds around $4,000.
- Made on
- 2019-03-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-04-02
Bitcoin's daily close (BTC/USD) is above its trailing 200-day simple moving average on at least one day between 2019-03-14 and 2019-08-31 inclusive.
Criterion met on 2019-04-02, about five months before the 2019-08-31 deadline. The claim carries a stated antecedent ('given it holds around $4,000'), and that antecedent held: over 2019-03-14 to 2019-04-01 BTC's close on the made_on date was $3,854.77 and the lowest intraday print was $3,775.01, with the index trading in a roughly $3,900-$4,140 band before the April 2 breakout. Because the condition was satisfied and the consequent then occurred, the record should NOT be treated as void on conditional grounds. The 200d SMA figures are derived (computed from Bitstamp daily closes) rather than published by a primary source, but the margin at the crossing is large enough (6% on day one, 15% within a week) that exchange-to-exchange price variation, which is typically well under 1%, cannot flip the result. Independently corroborated by contemporaneous reporting that explicitly named the 200-day MA break. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Another bitcoin bull market is coming in 2019, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitstamp BTC/USD daily OHLC (major spot exchange, public API). Computing the trailing 200-day simple moving average from these closes, the first daily close above the 200d SMA inside the criterion window (2019-03-14 to 2019-08-31) was 2019-04-02: close $4,899.63 vs 200d SMA $4,619.27 (+6.1%). The prior session (2019-04-01) closed $4,136.32 vs SMA $4,627.15 (below). The condition held with a widening margin: e.g. 2019-04-08 close $5,287.88 vs SMA $4,579.06 (+15.5%). 152 of the 171 days in the window closed above the 200d SMA.
Contemporaneous report dated 2019-04-03 headlined 'Bitcoin Touches $5k After Breaking The Major 200-Day Moving Average', confirming the 200-day MA break occurred on the 2019-04-02 surge and was recognized as such in real time.
Benzinga, April 2019, 'Bitcoin Surging Above $5,200' — independent corroboration of the early-April 2019 move from roughly $4,100 to above $5,000, the move that produced the 200-day MA cross.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: The resolution resolves the record TRUE (non-void) precisely because the antecedent held — BTC's made_on close was $3,854.77 and it traded in a ~$3,900–4,140 band through 2019-04-01 before the April-2 breakout. condition_met should read true to match the resolution logic.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin's price crosses above its 200-day moving average by…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-03-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources